Do you worry that more war is coming to Iran. >> Well, you see, we're not afraid of war. We do not seek war.President Trump has said that his administration has come to create peace. But the path that they have embarked upon will set fire to the entire region. It cannot just be that you conduct an aerial sorty with a 100 aircraft maybe and bomb away certain targets.I'm going to ask you it in a different format. Is Iran preparing for more war. >> We have never started a war.We will never be starting any wars ...

Since the massacre on October 7th 2023, Israel has lashed out at Hamas across the Middle East, but it refrained from going after them in Qatar. No longer https://t.co/AfBxfLtOpJ ...

Market Reaction to Middle East Conflict - Historically, Middle East conflicts have led to oil price increases due to market anticipation of supply disruptions, given the region's centrality to global supply [1] - Currently, the oil market is not preemptively pricing in potential supply disruptions, possibly due to past overreactions that did not materialize [2][3] US Shale Revolution Impact - The US has significantly increased its oil production from approximately 750 万 (7.5 million) barrels per day 20 years ago to nearly 2100 万 (21 million) barrels per day [4] - Reduced US reliance on oil flow from the Strait of Hormuz may be contributing to traders' decreased need to price in risk for potential disruptions [4] Key Takeaway - The current Middle East conflict is occurring in the "post US shale revolution era," impacting global oil market dynamics [3][4]

Geopolitical Situation - The report focuses on the reactions from Washington DC and around the world to the US strikes in Iran [1] - The report addresses the continued geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East [1]

Geopolitical Landscape & US Foreign Policy - President Trump abruptly cancelled meetings at the G7 summit, citing the need to address the ongoing conflict in the Middle East [1][2] - The US is considering its role in supporting Israel, weighing military intervention against diplomatic solutions [3][4] - President Trump stated he is seeking a definitive "end" to the conflict rather than a ceasefire [5] - German Chancellor indicated that complete destruction of Iranian nuclear program is on the agenda if Iran does not back down, which Israel cannot achieve alone [4] Trade Negotiations & International Relations - Limited tangible progress was made on the trade front at the G7 summit, despite numerous meetings with G7 and EU leaders [7] - President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the EU's trade offers, deeming them unfair [8] - A potential trade deal with Japan is possible, but negotiations are expected to be challenging [8] - The German Chancellor anticipates a resolution to the tariff dispute with the US (EU) before the end of summer [9][10] - President Trump views the EU as economically competitive and potentially challenging to the United States [11] - The US may consider extending the July 9th deadline for trade negotiations with the EU if progress is being made [11][12][14]

Geopolitical Risks & Market Reaction - The market is failing to fully appreciate the potential gravity of the current geopolitical moment, particularly concerning Middle East conflicts [2] - The perceived importance of Middle East conflict and its relationship to oil prices has declined over time, potentially leading to underestimation of current risks [2] - US shale gas supply has reduced the sensitivity of oil prices to Middle Eastern geopolitical risks, but the current situation is different [4] Potential Escalation Scenarios - The US potentially getting involved in a major geopolitical risk event, such as a conflict with China over Taiwan or an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, represents a significant escalation [5] - The possibility of a "controlled explosion" potentially happening in Iran indicates a failure of markets to understand the risk trajectory [6] - Recent exchanges of force between Israel and Iran, including Israel's claimed aerial superiority, represent a strong statement and escalation [7] Israel-Iran Conflict Dynamics - Israel's Operation Rising Lion, involving targeted assassinations and undermining Iran's nuclear capacity, is an advanced operation [8] - The success of Operation Rising Lion on Israeli terms would require undermining Iran's nuclear capacity [8] - Achieving the desired outcome in the conflict between Israel and Iran may require US military assistance, making Trump's decisions a key variable [9]