Core Viewpoint - The 2026 stock market is expected to provide more gains but at a slower pace compared to 2025, characterized by a choppy year with political dynamics influencing market performance [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance and Predictions - The bull market is slowing down, but claims of its demise are exaggerated; world stocks gained over 21% in 2025, with Europe leading at 35% [2][5]. - The S&P 500 has surged 86% since the end of 2022, but concerns about a potential tech bubble are unfounded as the bull market is broader than just technology [3][4]. - Annualized returns for US stocks over the last three years have been 23%, and 2026 is expected to land between long-term averages and bull market averages [6]. Group 2: Sentiment and Forecasts - Among 72 professional forecasts, only four predict a decline of more than 1% for US stocks in 2026, with a median forecast of 9.6% [7][10]. - European forecasts are more pessimistic, with a median prediction of 5.3% for the Euro Stoxx 50 [7]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The global yield curve is steep, and US loan growth is doubling the previous year's pace, which supports economic growth [11]. - Economists express concerns about tariffs and inflation, leading to lower growth expectations, particularly in Europe, which may create opportunities for beating these expectations [12]. Group 4: Political Influences - Midterm elections are expected to create initial market uncertainty but will likely lead to a "midterm miracle" where stocks perform well after the elections due to increased gridlock [13][16]. - Historically, stocks tend to perform modestly in the first three quarters of midterm years but see significant gains in the fourth quarter and the following year [14][16].