Core Insights - The Chicago Fed has introduced new labor market indicators that combine private sector data with official labor statistics to provide a real-time view of hiring, layoffs, and other job information [1][4][21] Labor Market Indicators - The new indicators include a real-time estimate of the unemployment rate, the layoff and separations rate, and the hiring rate for unemployed workers, which collectively offer insights into the current job market [4][21] - Current statistics indicate stability in the job market, characterized by low hiring and low layoff rates, which contrasts with the larger swings observed in aggregate payroll employment numbers [5][21] Inflation and Interest Rates - The Fed maintains a long-term inflation target of 2%, emphasizing the need to return to this target despite recent inflationary pressures [6][16] - The current interest rate is viewed as mildly restrictive, with a neutral rate estimated to be 100 to 125 basis points lower than the current level [9][15] - There is a consensus among committee members that rates could potentially settle around 3% if inflation is brought back to the target [16] Economic Outlook - The labor market is cooling at a mild to modest pace, with the possibility of the unemployment rate decreasing, although this is less likely than it remaining stable or increasing [21][23] - The aggregate jobs numbers have shown a decline compared to the previous year, but factors such as immigration are influencing the supply side of the labor market [22]