Core Insights - Bitcoin is expected to trade sideways between approximately $75,000 and $100,000 in the first half of the year, with a potential breakout later as regulatory clarity improves and macro risks are digested [7] - The surge in gold prices reflects global concerns about fiat currencies and asset seizure risks, which may funnel demand toward Bitcoin as a superior form of self-custody and settlement [7] - Central banks are beginning to explore Bitcoin, asking fundamental questions about its security and risks, with expectations that they may own Bitcoin in the future, potentially more than gold, but this adoption is likely 10 to 20 years away [7] Market Dynamics - The current market shows a lot of Bitcoin available for sale around $100,000, indicating a need for patience before significant price movements [7] - Silver is viewed as a late-stage momentum trade, similar to speculative altcoins, which may influence Bitcoin's demand dynamics over time [7] - The declining volatility of Bitcoin is critical for institutional adoption, with Bitcoin now being less volatile than Nvidia, a stock many investors already hold [7] Long-term Outlook - The long-term price target for Bitcoin is projected to be around $6.5 million per coin over the next 20 years, based on the continuation of global debt growth, money printing, and currency debasement [7] - Regulatory clarity in Washington could accelerate the next bull phase for Bitcoin, but it is not deemed necessary for the long-term trajectory of the cryptocurrency [7] - The fundamentals for Bitcoin are considered strong, with expectations for continued expansion of ETFs, stablecoins, and tokenization, suggesting a favorable outlook for 2026 [7]