Core Viewpoint - The crude oil market is experiencing a negative trend, with recent price movements indicating potential challenges ahead for both crude oil prices and energy stocks [2][5][12]. Price Movements - Crude oil prices rallied to $78.40 in June but closed the week at $65.52, indicating a failure to establish a positive trend [2]. - After hitting a low of $62.17 in June, crude oil increased by 6.5% to close July at $69.36, but the overall trend remains negative [3]. - In August, crude oil prices fell by 7.7%, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) gained 3.7% [5]. Technical Analysis - The monthly DTS indicator generated a sell signal in November 2024, confirming a new downtrend after a break of support in April 2025 [3]. - The 20-month EMA has been declining since November 2023, reinforcing the negative trend, currently positioned at $68.84 [6]. - The 4th Quarter pivot is at $64.80, with the OBVplus indicating a continued downtrend favoring lower prices [7]. Resistance and Support Levels - Strong resistance is noted in the $66.40 area, with a weekly starc+ band at $68.98 [8]. - Support levels are identified at $55.12 and a post-Covid support line around $33 [8]. Volume and Money Flow - The on-balance-volume (OBV) is below its WMA, indicating a negative long-term pattern of lower highs and lower lows [9]. - The Herrick Payoff Index (HPI) has dropped below the zero line, signaling negative money flow [9]. Seasonal Trends - The seasonal trend for crude oil typically peaks in July and bottoms out around December 13th, aligning with the current monthly technical trend [10]. Relative Performance - The Energy Select Sector (XLE) is down 2.2% for the month but up 3.6% year-to-date, lagging behind the S&P 500, which is up over 17.3% YTD [10][11]. - The relative performance peaked in late 2022 and has diverged from prices since 2023, remaining below its WMA [11]. Future Outlook - The monthly and weekly analyses are negative for crude oil, while the daily analysis shows slight positivity, suggesting a potential rebound that may ultimately fail [12]. - The preliminary yearly pivot for crude oil in 2026 is set at $85.55, which will be monitored as the year concludes [12].