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Orchid Island Capital(ORC) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-04-25 15:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1, the company earned $0.18 per share compared to $0.07 in Q4 [5] - Book value at March 31 was $7.94 per share compared to $8.09 at December 31 [5] - Total return for the quarter was 2.6% unannualized compared to 0.6% for Q4 [5] - Liquidity at March 31 was 52.2% compared to 52.9% at December 31 [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average portfolio was just under $6 billion compared to $5.3 billion in Q4 [6] - The leverage ratio at March 31 was 7.8 compared to 7.3 at December 31 [6] - Prepayment speeds were 7.8% in Q1 compared to 10.5% for Q4 [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market moved to price in three or more Fed cuts by the end of the year [11] - Swap spreads moved meaningfully negative late in the quarter and into April [14] - The spread of the current coupon mortgage to the ten-year has widened significantly [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company raised capital during the quarter and deployed it into higher coupon, shorter duration assets [24] - The strategy includes using longer duration hedges to mitigate exposure to declining swap spreads [24] - The company is focused on maintaining liquidity and is prepared to raise capital if necessary [76] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed uncertainty due to market volatility driven by tariffs and inflation [55] - The expectation is for slower growth and potential Fed eases, which could lead to a steeper yield curve [58] - The company is positioned with a skew towards higher coupon, shorter duration assets, which should work well in the current environment [59] Other Important Information - The company declared and paid dividends of $0.36 per share for each quarter [5] - The management acknowledged a mistake in the initial earnings release regarding the breakdown of earnings per share [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the duration gap at the end of the quarter and to date? - The duration gap is very narrow, with a DV01 basis of $13, remaining about the same as of now [62][63] Question: Where do you see gross ROE sitting today? - The gross ROE is estimated to be around 20%, with high volatility in swaps [73] Question: How are you looking at dividend issuance and buybacks? - The company is cautious about buybacks due to stock trading close to book value and may consider raising capital for liquidity [76][78] Question: Will the 2025 dividend be 100% taxable income? - It is uncertain at this point, but the taxable income has been right on top of the distribution year to date [91][93] Question: Thoughts on the Rocket Mortgage and Nationstar deal? - The deal may increase prepayment speeds and impact the convexity of the mortgage universe negatively [99][100]
Orchid Island Capital(ORC) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-04-25 15:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1, the company earned $0.18 per share compared to $0.07 in Q4, with a book value of $7.94 per share down from $8.09 at the end of Q4 [5][6] - Total return for the quarter was 2.6% unannualized, an increase from 0.6% in Q4 [5] - The average portfolio size was just under $6 billion, up from $5.3 billion in Q4, with a leverage ratio of 7.8 compared to 7.3 at the end of Q4 [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average portfolio size increased, indicating a more substantial investment in mortgage-backed securities [6] - Prepayment speeds decreased to 7.8% in Q1 from 10.5% in Q4, reflecting changes in market conditions [6][52] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market experienced significant volatility due to tariffs and their expected impact on the economy and inflation, leading to pricing in multiple Fed cuts by year-end [11][60] - Swap spreads moved meaningfully negative late in the quarter, impacting mortgage performance [14][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company raised capital during the quarter, deploying it into higher coupon, shorter duration assets, and hedging with longer duration instruments [24][32] - The strategy focuses on maintaining a balance between risk and return, particularly in a volatile market environment [61] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed uncertainty regarding future economic conditions, highlighting potential inflationary pressures and slower growth due to tariffs [56][60] - The company is positioned to benefit from a steeper yield curve, which is anticipated to occur as a result of the current economic landscape [61] Other Important Information - The company declared and paid dividends of $0.36 per share for the quarter, maintaining a consistent payout [5] - Liquidity at the end of Q1 was 52.2%, slightly down from 52.9% at the end of Q4 [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the duration gap at the end of the quarter and to date? - Management indicated that the duration gap is narrow, with a DV01 basis of $13, remaining consistent [64][65] Question: What is the current book value? - The estimated book value was $7.28, reflecting an 8.3% decline quarter to date [70][71] Question: Where do you see gross ROE sitting today? - Management suggested that ROE is very high, potentially around 20%, due to volatile market conditions [79] Question: How are you looking at dividend issuance and buybacks? - Management noted that buybacks were reactivated due to stock price declines, and future capital raising may be considered for liquidity purposes [81][82] Question: How does the Rocket Mortgage and Nationstar merger affect prepay speeds? - Management indicated that the merger could lead to faster prepayment speeds, impacting the convexity of the mortgage universe [104]