Core Insights - Michael Gray has extensive experience in capital markets and fixed income asset management, having founded Gray Capital Management LLC and previously served as Head of Taxable Fixed Income at Fidelity Investments [1] Group 1 - Michael Gray holds an MBA in Finance from Wharton and a BA in Economics from Union College [1]

Market Trends & Auction Expectations - The market anticipates all auctions to perform well, with a tendency for the street to push yields higher [1] - Current long bond rates present buying opportunities [2] Government Shutdown Impact - Historically, government shutdowns have had minimal impact on markets, averaging 3 to 30 days in duration, as any effects are temporary and borrowed from the future [3] - The speaker believes being in the dark on economic numbers is delaying the inevitable, which is the Fed has to cut rates more [4] Corporate Bond Spreads & Investment Strategy - Corporate bond spreads are currently historically tight, implying high prices [4] - The speaker suggests that investors are likely to lose money in the corporate bond market, regardless of quality, over the next year [6] - The speaker recommends focusing on the highest quality corporate bonds to maintain value, or considering mortgage-backed securities or treasuries as alternatives [6] Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) - Low coupon mortgages created during COVID, with rates at 2% to 2.5%, are now at low dollar prices, around $80 [7] - These mortgages are experiencing either no negative convexity or positive convexity due to prepayments, a unique situation [8] Economic Concerns & Rate Cuts - Despite AI and capex spending, the speaker expresses concerns about the overall economy, citing weakness in housing, commercial real estate, wage growth, and employment [9][11] - The speaker believes the Fed is cutting rates because the economy needs it, not as an insurance measure [11] Stock Market Illusion - The speaker views the strong stock market as an illusion, anticipating a realization that AI investments may not yield expected returns [13][14]