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Mission Produce Rides Mexico Supply Boost: How Long Can It Last?
ZACKS· 2025-12-18 19:56
Core Insights - Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO) is experiencing a short-term increase in avocado supply from Mexico, its primary sourcing region, due to improved harvests and favorable weather conditions [1][4] - The company is optimizing its sourcing mix with robust production from Peru and Mexico, enhancing its pricing flexibility and financial consistency [1][4] - AVO is effectively managing seasonal dynamics in Mexico while maintaining strong customer relationships and service levels [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Management anticipates a 15% year-over-year increase in industry volumes for Q4, driven by ample Peruvian supply and a new Mexican crop expected to exceed last year's levels [3][9] - The current supply boost allows AVO to better meet demand and strengthen its market presence [4] Competitive Landscape - Key competitors include Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) and Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO), both of which are enhancing their positions through innovation and operational efficiency [5][6][7] Financial Performance - AVO shares have increased by 5.9% over the past six months, contrasting with a 10.4% decline in the industry [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 32.85X, significantly higher than the industry average of 12.39X [10] - Zacks Consensus Estimates indicate a decline in earnings per share (EPS) of 9.5% for fiscal 2025 and 28.4% for fiscal 2026, with stable estimates over the past 30 days [11]