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The State Of REITs: August 2025 Edition
Seeking Alpha· 2025-08-18 07:42
REIT Performance Overview - REITs experienced an average decline of -1.17% in July, underperforming compared to broader market indices such as NASDAQ (+3.7%), S&P 500 (+2.2%), and Dow Jones (+0.2%) [1] - The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) slightly outperformed the average REIT in July with a return of +0.09% and has outperformed year-to-date at +2.10% compared to the average REIT's -6.42% [1] - The spread between the 2025 FFO multiples of large cap REITs (17.6x) and small cap REITs (13.0x) widened, indicating that investors are paying 35.4% more for each dollar of FFO from large cap REITs [1] Property Type Performance - 66.67% of REIT property types averaged negative total returns in July, with a total return spread of 14.34% between the best (Infrastructure +5.08%) and worst (Land -9.28%) performing property types [5][6] - Over the first seven months of 2025, large cap REITs outperformed small caps by 547 basis points, with micro cap REITs showing a recent trend of outperformance [3][6] - The average P/FFO for the REIT sector remained unchanged at 13.7x in July, with 44.4% of property types experiencing multiple expansion [7] Individual Security Highlights - City Office REIT (CIO) surged by +32.26% in July following an acquisition announcement at $7.00/share, with the transaction expected to close in Q4 2025 [9] - Wheeler REIT (WHLR) faced a significant decline of -43.73% in July, marking a total return of -99.28% over the first seven months of 2025, the worst in the sector [10][12] - 39.35% of REITs had a positive total return in July, while the average year-to-date total return for REITs was -6.42%, significantly lower than the +3.83% return for the same period in 2024 [10] Dividend Yield Insights - High dividend yields are a key attraction for investors in the REIT sector, with many REITs trading below their NAV, resulting in attractive yields [14] - Opportunities exist to capitalize on high dividend yields that may justify the underlying risks associated with certain investments [15]
The State Of REITs: July 2025 Edition
Seeking Alpha· 2025-07-18 20:29
REIT Performance Overview - In June, REITs achieved an average total return of +2.56%, but underperformed compared to broader market indices such as NASDAQ (+6.6%), S&P 500 (+5.1%), and Dow Jones (+4.5%) [1] - The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) underperformed the average REIT in June (+0.69% vs. +2.56%) but has outperformed year-to-date (+2.01% vs. -5.65%) [1] - The spread between 2025 FFO multiples of large cap REITs (17.6x) and small cap REITs (13.3x) narrowed, with large caps contracting by 0.2 turns and small caps expanding by 0.4 turns [1] Property Type Performance - 72.22% of REIT property types averaged positive returns in June, with an 11.07% total return spread between the best (Office +7.60%) and worst (Self-Storage -3.47%) performing property types [5][6] - Over the first half of 2025, large cap REITs outperformed small caps by 581 basis points, while micro cap REITs (+7.19%) outperformed larger peers in June [3] Year-to-Date Performance - The average year-to-date total return for REITs in 2025 is -5.65%, which is worse than the -3.86% return for the REIT sector in the first half of 2024 [12] - Health Care (+8.98%) and Casinos (+7.35%) were the top performers over the first half of the year, while Hotel (-15.35%), Office (-15.27%), and Shopping Center REITs (-13.66%) struggled with double-digit declines [7][10] Price/FFO Metrics - The average P/FFO for the REIT sector increased from 13.6x to 13.7x in June, with 50% of property types experiencing multiple expansion [8] - Data Centers (27.6x), Land (24x), and Multifamily (23x) currently trade at the highest average multiples among REIT property types, while Hotels (6.3x), Offices (8.9x), and Malls (9.1x) have single-digit FFO multiples [8][9] Individual Securities Performance - Wheeler REIT (WHLR) led the sector in June with a return of +52.26%, but has the worst total return in the first half of 2025 at -98.72% [10] - Presidio Property Trust (SQFT) closed the first half of the year with a -34.62% year-to-date total return, having regained compliance with NASDAQ's minimum bid price requirement through a reverse stock split [11] Dividend Yield Insights - High dividend yields are a significant attraction for investors in the REIT sector, with many REITs trading below their NAV, resulting in attractive yields [15]