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比亚迪 - 腾势 N8L 上市前-推动 2025 年第四季度至 2026 年高端细分市场份额进一步提升;买入
2025-09-30 02:22
Summary of BYD Co. (002594.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: BYD Co. (002594.SZ) - **Brand**: Denza, a premium brand under BYD - **Product Launch**: Denza N8L, a D-segment 6-seat SUV, pre-launched on September 26, 2025 Key Points Product Competitiveness - Denza N8L has a pre-sale price starting at Rmb318.9k and scores highest among Rmb300k-400k NEV SUVs in price, range, size, and autopilot features [1][2][3] - Current top sellers in the segment are AITO M8 (average monthly sales of 16k) and Li Auto L7 (average monthly sales of 9k), both 5-seaters, while Denza N8L is expected to achieve average monthly sales of 6k [1] Market Share and Growth - Denza has shown growing market share in the premium NEV segment (Rmb250k+) during 1H25, with expectations for continued growth following the N8L launch in 4Q25 [3] - Denza has room to expand its model portfolio into mainstream higher volume segments, particularly below Rmb300k [3] Long-term Strategy - BYD's long-term strategy focuses on premiumization for the Denza brand, emphasizing technology and safety [4] - Forecasted volume CAGR for Denza is +24%, increasing from 126k units in 2024 to 468k units in 2030E, contributing significantly to group vehicle volume, revenue, and gross profit [4] Investment Thesis - BYD is positioned well in both domestic and overseas markets, capturing mass-market demand and building premium brands [8] - Total vehicle sales volume is expected to grow from 4.3 million in 2024 to 7.4 million in 2030E [10] - Current share prices are below historical averages, presenting an attractive investment opportunity [10] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include intensifying competition in the electric vehicle market, slower-than-expected overseas expansion, and lower-than-expected external battery sales [10][11] Financial Metrics - Price targets are set at Rmb133 for A-shares and HK$130 for H-shares, with respective upside potentials of 24% and 22.1% [7] - Revenue projections for BYD are Rmb777.1 million in 2024, increasing to Rmb1.16 trillion by 2027 [7] Additional Insights - Denza's brand awareness has improved since BYD acquired it from Mercedes in September 2024, indicating a positive trajectory for the brand [2] - The competitive landscape shows that Denza N8L outperforms its competitors in key metrics, which may enhance its market position [1][7] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding BYD Co. and its premium brand Denza, highlighting product competitiveness, market strategies, growth forecasts, and potential risks.