Market Trend Analysis - Bitcoin's performance is increasingly tied to the macro environment with each cycle [1] - Bitcoin surges when financial conditions loosen and drops when they tighten, with a 4-6 week lead/lag based on the NFCI financial conditions index [1] - The Fed is expected to end QT in early December, with asset purchases likely to resume soon after [1] - Easing financial conditions are expected to establish a local bottom and initiate higher highs in mid-late December [1] Technical Indicators - Bitcoin is currently oversold across all timeframes [2] - Backtesting 10 years of Bitcoin data against 105 financial indicators reveals a handful of signals predicting BTC 4-6 weeks out [2]