Long $BIRB vesting for Moonbirds NFTs.If I were a holder, I would obviously prefer a 100% TGE unlock.But we’ve seen across many ecosystems that this often instantly nukes NFT floor prices post-TGE.On the other hand, vesting tied to NFTs usually results in floor prices slowly bleeding out as tokens unlock over time.In that scenario, NFTs become little more than token vessels, with their value tied to the token price x the amount still vesting.I’m starting to think there’s no real way to win here, only differ ...

NFT Market Leverage - The NFT market is experiencing a pump in floor prices [1] - This pump is potentially being propped up by leverage [1] - There are potential dangers associated with this leverage [1] Specific Projects - Leverage is being used in Pudgy Penguins [1] - Leverage is being used in Bored Apes [1] - Leverage is being used in Azukis [1]

NFT Market Leverage - The NFT market, particularly for projects like Pudgy Penguins, Bored Apes, and Azukis, exhibits significant leverage on platforms like Blur [1] - Borrowers are using loans to finance a large portion of NFT purchases, exemplified by buying a Pudgy Penguin with 2 ETH instead of 16 ETH, borrowing the remaining 14 ETH [1] - A substantial percentage of current NFT loans have a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 70% or higher, indicating high leverage [2] Risk Assessment - High LTV ratios, such as borrowing 11+ ETH to purchase a Pudgy Penguin, represent a bet on the floor price increasing [2] - The risk is currently perceived as low due to rising floor prices, adequate bid depth, and organic sales [2] - The end of Blur farming has eliminated the riskiest loan offers seen in 2023 and 2024, but has also weakened bid depth [3] Market Monitoring - Debtors are likely to take profits if the price increase slows or reverses, especially as interest accumulates on loans [3] - The market should be monitored for potential profit-taking behavior that could impact floor prices [3] - If the floor price decreases and the loan cannot be refinanced, the borrower risks losing the initial investment (e g, 2 ETH) and the NFT [2]