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瑞银:2025 版 “国家队” 全知道
瑞银· 2025-04-15 00:58
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific stocks Core Insights - The 'national team', represented by Central Huijin, is actively increasing its ETF holdings to stabilize the capital market and rebuild investor confidence, which has positively impacted market sentiment and led to a rebound in the A-share market [2][10][11] - Central Huijin's financial strength and access to liquidity support from the People's Bank of China (PBoC) enable it to significantly increase its market position in extreme scenarios [3][17][20] - The national team's ETF purchases in 2024 reached over RMB 770 billion, indicating a substantial commitment to maintaining market stability [4][33] Summary by Sections National Team's Role - Central Huijin has positioned itself as a "quasi-stabilisation fund" in the capital market, demonstrating its resolve to maintain stability through increased ETF holdings [2][10] - The national team's actions have led to a notable increase in trading volumes of various A-share ETFs since early April 2025 [11][12] Market Impact - The national team's ETF purchases were primarily concentrated in the CSI 300 index, which accounted for 71% of its total net inflow in 2024 [5][10] - The turnover of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 ETFs saw significant increases of 397% and 732% respectively compared to daily averages from the previous year, indicating heightened market activity [5][11] State-Owned Capital Involvement - State-owned capital operation platforms, such as China Chengtong and China Reform, have announced plans to increase their A-share holdings through ETFs, further supporting market stability [21][22] - These platforms are utilizing substantial relending funds (RMB 100 billion and RMB 80 billion respectively) for stock repurchases, indicating a coordinated effort to bolster the market [22][23] Historical Context - The national team's previous interventions, such as in 2015, involved significant market purchases, with aggregate shareholdings exceeding RMB 1.24 trillion, highlighting its historical role in stabilizing the market during downturns [4][39]