March Nymex natural gas (NGH26) on Thursday closed higher by +0.044 (+1.27%). March nat-gas prices settled higher on Thursday amid a record withdrawal of nat-gas storage.  The EIA reported Thursday that nat-gas inventories fell -360 bcf in the week ended January 30, the largest weekly withdrawal from US gas storage sites on record and well above the five-year average for the week of -190 bcf. More News from Barchart Expectations of below-normal US temperatures, which will boost nat-gas heating demand, ...

Core Insights - Natural gas prices have surged to a 3.25-year high, closing up by +7.28% on February Nymex contracts due to colder weather forecasts in the eastern US, which may increase heating demand and reduce inventories [1][2] Price Movements - Natural gas prices have increased by over +120% in the past week, driven by a significant storm and an Arctic cold front that disrupted production and increased heating demand [3] - The last trading day for the February Nymex natural gas futures contract saw funds covering short positions, contributing to the price rally [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Approximately 50 billion cubic feet of natural gas were offline due to freeze-ups from the cold weather, representing about 15% of total US production [3] - US dry gas production was reported at 102.8 billion cubic feet per day, showing a year-over-year decline of -1.2% [6] - Demand for natural gas in the lower-48 states increased to 133.0 billion cubic feet per day, reflecting a year-over-year rise of +34.2% [6] Inventory and Production Forecasts - Expectations of a significant drawdown in natural gas storage are supporting price increases, with a consensus forecast of a decline of -239 billion cubic feet in the week ending January 23, exceeding the five-year average decline of -208 billion cubic feet [4] - The EIA has revised its forecast for US dry natural gas production in 2026 down to 107.4 billion cubic feet per day from a previous estimate of 109.11 billion cubic feet per day, indicating a supportive environment for prices [5] Electricity Output - The Edison Electric Institute reported a year-over-year decrease of -6.3% in US electricity output for the week ending January 24, although the output for the past 52 weeks increased by +2.1% [7]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices experienced a slight recovery after reaching a three-month low, driven by forecasts of below-normal temperatures in the US that could increase heating demand [1] - The bearish sentiment in the market was influenced by a weekly EIA inventory report showing a smaller-than-expected draw in natural gas inventories [2][7] Inventory and Production - The EIA reported a decrease of 71 billion cubic feet (bcf) in natural gas inventories for the week ending January 9, which was less than the anticipated draw of 91 bcf and significantly below the five-year average of 146 bcf [2][7] - Projections indicate a reduction in US natural gas production, with the EIA lowering its forecast for 2026 production to 107.4 bcf/day from a previous estimate of 109.11 bcf/day [5] Demand and Export Issues - Natural gas feedgas to Cheniere's Corpus Christi LNG export facility and Freeport LNG export terminals has been below normal due to electrical and piping issues, contributing to increased storage levels and downward pressure on prices [3] - US dry gas production was reported at 112.0 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.8%, while demand was at 114.1 bcf/day, down 3.2% year-over-year [6] Electricity Output - The Edison Electric Institute reported a year-over-year decline of 13.15% in US electricity output for the week ending January 10, totaling 79,189 GWh, although the output for the past 52 weeks increased by 2.5% [4]

Group 1: Natural Gas Prices and Forecasts - January Nymex natural gas prices fell by -0.166 (-3.77%) on Wednesday, reversing part of Tuesday's rally of +11.17% due to cold-weather forecasts [1] - Forecasts for the East Coast shifted to warmer temperatures for January 3-7, while colder forecasts were issued for the interior West and Plains regions [1] Group 2: Production and Inventory Reports - The EIA rescheduled the inventory report from December 24 to December 29 due to the Christmas holiday [2] - US natural gas production is near record highs, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast to 107.74 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) from 107.70 bcf/day [2] - US (lower-48) dry gas production was reported at 112.9 bcf/day, an increase of +8.1% year-over-year [3] Group 3: Demand and LNG Flows - Lower-48 state gas demand was reported at 85.2 bcf/day, a decrease of -8.2% year-over-year [3] - Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals were 18.3 bcf/day, down -4.2% week-over-week [3] Group 4: Electricity Output and Its Impact - US electricity output rose by +2.3% year-over-year to 85,330 GWh for the week ending December 6, and for the 52-week period, it increased by +2.84% year-over-year to 4,291,665 GWh [4] Group 5: Inventory Changes and Market Sentiment - The EIA reported a decrease in natural gas inventories by -167 bcf for the week ending December 12, which was a smaller draw than the market consensus of -176 bcf but larger than the 5-year weekly average of -96 bcf [5] - As of December 12, natural gas inventories were down -1.2% year-over-year and +0.9% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating adequate supplies [5] - European gas storage was reported to be 68% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 78% [5] Group 6: Drilling Activity - The number of active US natural gas drilling rigs remained unchanged at 127, just below the 2.25-year high of 130 set on November 28 [6] - The number of gas rigs has increased from a 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Natural gas prices have increased due to a larger-than-expected draw in inventories and colder weather forecasts, which are likely to boost heating demand Group 1: Natural Gas Prices and Inventory - December natural gas prices rose by +1.72% following a reported inventory draw of -11 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending November 21, exceeding expectations of -9 bcf [2][6] - As of November 21, natural gas inventories were down -0.8% year-over-year and were +4.2% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating sufficient supply levels [6] Group 2: Production and Demand - US dry gas production reached a record high of 113.1 bcf/day, reflecting an increase of +8.3% year-over-year [4] - The number of active US natural gas drilling rigs rose to 130, marking a 2.25-year high, with a significant increase from a 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024 [7] Group 3: Weather Impact and Electricity Output - Colder weather forecasts for the eastern and southern US are expected to increase natural gas heating demand [2] - US electricity output rose by +5.33% year-over-year to 75,586 GWh for the week ending November 15, supporting natural gas prices [5]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices increased by 2.95% on December Nymex due to expectations of colder temperatures in the US, which are likely to boost heating demand [1] - The weekly EIA storage report indicated a neutral impact on prices, with inventories rising by 33 billion cubic feet (bcf), aligning with market expectations but falling short of the five-year average of 42 bcf [5] Production and Demand - US dry gas production reached 110.1 bcf/day, marking an 8.4% year-over-year increase, while gas demand was 79.5 bcf/day, up 1.5% year-over-year [2] - The Edison Electric Institute reported a slight increase in US electricity output, which rose by 0.05% year-over-year to 73,730 GWh for the week ending November 1 [3] Inventory and Storage - As of October 31, natural gas inventories were up 0.4% year-over-year and 4.3% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating sufficient supply levels [5] - European gas storage was reported to be 83% full, compared to the five-year average of 92% for this time of year [5] Drilling Activity - The number of active US natural gas drilling rigs increased to 125, the highest level in 2.25 years, reflecting a rise from a low of 94 rigs in September 2024 [6] - The EIA has raised its forecast for US natural gas production in 2025 by 0.5% to 107.14 bcf/day, indicating a trend towards higher production levels [4]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices in the US experienced a significant increase of +4.18% on November Nymex, recovering most of the losses from the previous week due to cooler weather forecasts that are expected to increase heating demand in northern regions [1] Production and Demand - US dry gas production reached 108.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day), marking a year-over-year increase of +4.2% [2] - Gas demand in the lower-48 states was reported at 75.1 bcf/day, also reflecting a +4.2% year-over-year increase [2] - Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals were 16.6 bcf/day, showing a weekly increase of +1.5% [2] Market Dynamics - The increase in US natural gas production is viewed as a bearish factor for prices, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by +0.5% to 107.14 bcf/day [3] - Active US natural gas rigs remained stable at 121, just below the recent high of 124 rigs, indicating a recovery from a low of 94 rigs in September 2024 [6] Inventory and Supply - The EIA reported a rise in natural gas inventories by +87 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending October 17, surpassing market expectations and the 5-year average [5] - As of October 21, European gas storage was 83% full, compared to a 5-year seasonal average of 92% [5] Electricity Output - The Edison Electric Institute reported a +4.0% year-over-year increase in US electricity output for the week ending October 18, totaling 73,756 GWh [4] - Over the past 52 weeks, electricity output rose by +2.89% year-over-year to 4,280,821 GWh [4]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices in the US have increased for the third consecutive session, reaching a 1.5-week high due to forecasts of colder weather boosting heating demand [2] - US natural gas production is at a near-record high, which may exert downward pressure on prices [4] Production and Demand - US dry gas production was reported at 104.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day), reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.1% [3] - Demand for natural gas in the lower-48 states was 71.5 bcf/day, up 4.9% year-over-year [3] - The number of active US natural gas drilling rigs increased to 121, just below a two-year high [7] Inventory and Exports - Natural gas inventories rose by 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending October 10, which was below market expectations and the five-year average [6] - US natural gas pipeline exports to Mexico reached a record 7.5 bcf/day in May [3] Electricity Generation - US electricity output increased by 5.1% year-over-year to 77,390 gigawatt hours (GWh) for the week ending October 11 [5] - Over the past 52 weeks, electricity output rose by 2.86% year-over-year to 4,277,958 GWh [5]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices in the US experienced a significant increase due to forecasts predicting hotter weather, which is expected to raise demand from electricity providers for air conditioning [1] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for natural gas production in 2025, indicating a slight increase in supply [2] - Despite high production levels, natural gas inventories have risen above market expectations, suggesting adequate supply in the market [3] Group 1: Natural Gas Prices and Demand - October natural gas prices closed up by 3.47% on Monday, reflecting a rally driven by warmer weather forecasts [1] - Forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures across most of the US from September 25-29, which is likely to increase natural gas demand for electricity generation [1] Group 2: Production and Supply Dynamics - The EIA has increased its 2025 natural gas production forecast by 0.2% to 106.63 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) [2] - Current US natural gas production is near record highs, with active drilling rigs at a two-year peak [2][4] - US dry gas production was reported at 108.7 bcf/day, a 7.0% year-over-year increase, while demand was at 71.8 bcf/day, up 2.0% year-over-year [2] Group 3: Inventory Levels and Market Sentiment - Natural gas inventories rose by 71 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending September 5, exceeding market expectations and the five-year average [3] - As of September 5, natural gas inventories were down 1.3% year-over-year but 6.0% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating sufficient supply [3] - European gas storage was reported to be 80% full, compared to the five-year average of 87% for this time of year [3]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices experienced a modest recovery after hitting a 1.5-week low, driven by warmer temperature forecasts in the US, which are expected to increase demand for natural gas from electricity providers [1] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a higher-than-expected build in natural gas stockpiles, contributing to initial price declines [2] - Increased US natural gas production has been a bearish factor for prices, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by 0.2% [3] Production and Demand - US dry gas production reached 108.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day), marking a 7.1% year-over-year increase, while demand decreased to 70.3 bcf/day, down 3.2% year-over-year [4] - Estimated liquefied natural gas (LNG) net flows to US export terminals were 14.5 bcf/day, reflecting a weekly decline of 4.7% [4] Electricity Output - The Edison Electric Institute reported a year-over-year increase in US electricity output, with a rise of 1.03% to 83,003 GWh for the week ending September 6, and a 2.97% increase over the past 52 weeks [5] Inventory Levels - The EIA's weekly report indicated a build of 71 billion cubic feet (bcf) in natural gas inventories, surpassing market expectations and the 5-year average, although inventories were down 1.3% year-over-year [6] - As of September 9, European gas storage was 80% full, compared to a 5-year seasonal average of 86% [6]