March Nymex natural gas (NGH26) on Wednesday closed up by +0.054 (+1.85%). March nat-gas prices recovered from a 4.25-month nearest-futures low on Wednesday and settled higher.   Short-covering emerged in nat-gas futures on Wednesday after longer-term weather forecasts called for below-normal temperatures next month, potentially boosting nat-gas heating demand.  On Wednesday, EBW Analytics Group said the probability increased for a "polar vortex" weather pattern dropping into the lower 48 US states in the ...

March Nymex natural gas (NGH26) on Tuesday closed down by -0.070 (-2.35%). March nat-gas prices tumbled to a 4.25-month nearest-futures low on Tuesday and settled sharply lower.   The outlook for warmer US temperatures, which will reduce nat-gas heating demand, is weighing on prices.  On Tuesday, the Commodity Weather Group said forecasts shifted warmer, with above-normal temperatures expected across the western half of the US through the end of the month.  Also, high US nat-gas production and warmer weat ...

March Nymex natural gas (NGH26) on Friday closed up by +0.051 (+1.70%). March nat-gas prices on Friday settled higher on a shift in US weather forecasts to colder temperatures, potentially boosting heating demand for nat-gas.  On Friday, the Commodity Weather Group said that forecasts shifted colder, with below-normal temperatures expected across the US Midwest through February 24. More News from Barchart US (lower-48) dry gas production on Friday was 113.4 bcf/day (+12.5% y/y), according to BNEF.  Lo ...

March Nymex natural gas (NGH26) on Thursday closed down by -0.015 (-0.50%). March nat-gas prices on Thursday gave up an early advance and posted modest losses after weekly nat-gas storage levels fell less than expected.  The EIA reported that nat-gas inventories fell -144 bcf in the week ended February 13, a smaller draw than expectations of -149 bcf. More News from Barchart Nat-gas prices initially moved higher on Thursday amid the outlook for colder US weather, which is expected to boost heating dem ...

Core Insights - Natural gas prices experienced a recovery, closing up by 1.41% on March Nymex, driven by short-covering and expectations of a significant withdrawal from US natural gas storage levels [1] Group 1: Price Movements - March natural gas prices rose after hitting a four-week low, with a consensus expectation of a withdrawal of 257 billion cubic feet (bcf) from US nat-gas inventories, significantly higher than the five-year average of 146 bcf [1] - Initial price movements were downward due to forecasts of above-average temperatures in the US, which are expected to reduce heating demand for natural gas [2] Group 2: Production and Demand - The EIA has increased its forecast for US dry natural gas production in 2026 to 109.97 bcf/day, up from 108.82 bcf/day, indicating a bearish outlook for prices as production approaches record highs [3] - Current US dry gas production stands at 112.8 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.1%, while demand has decreased to 99.0 bcf/day, down 11.7% year-over-year [5] Group 3: Market Influences - A significant spike in natural gas prices occurred on January 28 due to a massive storm that caused Arctic cold weather, leading to production disruptions and increased heating demand [4] - The Edison Electric Institute reported a year-over-year increase in US electricity output, which may support natural gas prices, with a rise of 15.42% to 91,459.5 GWh for the week ending February 7 [6]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices have declined for three consecutive sessions, reaching a four-week low due to forecasts of above-average temperatures in the US, which are expected to reduce heating demand [1] - The EIA has raised its forecast for US dry natural gas production in 2026 to 109.97 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day), contributing to bearish sentiment in the market [2] - Recent weather events, including a significant storm in January, previously caused natural gas prices to surge to a three-year high due to production disruptions and increased heating demand [3] Production and Demand - US dry gas production is currently at 112.8 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.8%, while demand has decreased to 94.9 bcf/day, down 11.2% year-over-year [4] - Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals have increased to 19.5 bcf/day, showing a week-over-week rise of 2.6% [4] Inventory and Supply - The latest EIA report indicated a record draw of -360 billion cubic feet from natural gas inventories, which, although smaller than market expectations, is significantly above the five-year average draw [6] - As of January 30, natural gas inventories were up 2.8% year-over-year but 1.1% below the five-year seasonal average, indicating tighter supply conditions [6] - European gas storage levels are currently at 37% full, compared to a five-year seasonal average of 54% for this time of year [6] Electricity Output - The Edison Electric Institute reported a year-over-year increase of 21.4% in US electricity output for the week ending January 31, which may support natural gas prices [5] - Over the past 52 weeks, US electricity output has risen by 2.39% year-over-year [5]

Group 1: Natural Gas Price Movements - March natural gas prices closed higher by +0.074 (+2.29%) on Tuesday, recovering from a 25% plunge on Monday due to mixed US weather prospects [1] - Natural gas prices surged to a 3-year high last Wednesday, driven by a massive storm and an Arctic blast of cold weather, which caused freeze-ups in gas wells and disrupted production [2] - The EIA reported a larger-than-expected draw in natural gas inventories for the week ended January 23, with a decrease of -242 billion cubic feet (bcf), compared to the market consensus of -238 bcf [6] Group 2: Production and Demand Statistics - US dry gas production was reported at 110.5 bcf/day (+5.1% year-on-year) on Tuesday, while gas demand was at 110.6 bcf/day (+26.7% year-on-year) [3] - Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals were 19.1 bcf/day (+43.8% week-on-week) [3] - The EIA cut its forecast for 2026 US dry natural gas production to 107.4 bcf/day from a previous estimate of 109.11 bcf/day, indicating supportive conditions for prices [4] Group 3: Electricity Output and Its Impact - US electricity output in the week ended January 24 fell -6.3% year-on-year to 91,131 GWh, although the output for the 52-week period rose +2.1% year-on-year [5] - As of February 1, gas storage in Europe was reported to be 41% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 57% full for this time of year, indicating ample natural gas supplies [6]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices have surged over 60% this week due to a historic winter storm expected to increase heating demand and deplete inventories [2] - The EIA has revised its forecast for US dry natural gas production in 2026 down to 107.4 bcf/day, indicating potential support for prices [4] Group 1: Price Movements - February natural gas prices closed up by +0.230 (+4.56%) on Friday [1] - Prices remain below Thursday's 3-year nearest-futures high despite the recent surge [2] Group 2: Weather Impact - An Arctic cold front is expected to affect over 150 million people across 24 states, including Texas, which is home to key gas production sites [2][3] - The cold weather may disrupt gas production as water in pipelines freezes, increasing the risk of temporary outages [3] Group 3: Production and Demand - US dry gas production was reported at 109.6 bcf/day, an increase of +8.7% year-on-year [5] - Lower-48 state gas demand was recorded at 126.0 bcf/day, a slight decrease of -0.5% year-on-year [5] - Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals were 19.8 bcf/day, up +5.3% week-on-week [5] Group 4: Inventory Levels - The EIA reported a draw of -120 bcf in natural gas inventories for the week ended January 16, exceeding market expectations [7] - Current inventories are +6.0% year-on-year and +6.1% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating sufficient supply [7] - European gas storage was reported to be 48% full, compared to a 5-year average of 62% for this time of year [7]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices have surged over 60% in three days, reaching a three-year high due to forecasts of Arctic weather impacting the US, increasing heating demand and potentially disrupting production [1] - Texas is expected to experience frigid conditions, raising the risk of temporary outages and reduced natural gas production, prompting disaster declarations from the governor [2] Price Movements - February natural gas closed up by +0.170 (+3.49%) on Thursday, continuing a parabolic rally [1] - Weekly EIA report indicated a larger-than-expected draw in natural gas inventories, with a decrease of -120 billion cubic feet (bcf) compared to expectations of -98 bcf [3][7] Production and Supply Dynamics - The EIA has revised its forecast for US dry natural gas production in 2026 down to 107.4 bcf/day from 109.11 bcf/day, supporting price stability [4] - Current US dry gas production stands at 110.3 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +9.0% [5] Demand and Inventory Levels - Lower-48 state gas demand was reported at 112.6 bcf/day, a decrease of -15.0% year-over-year [5] - Natural gas inventories are currently up +6.0% year-over-year and +6.1% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating sufficient supply levels [7]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices have declined significantly, with February Nymex natural gas closing down 6.99%, reaching a 2.5-month low due to forecasts of warmer weather in the US that will reduce heating demand and allow for storage replenishment [1] Production and Demand - US natural gas production is at a near-record high, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast to 107.74 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) from 107.70 bcf/day [2] - Dry gas production in the lower 48 states was reported at 113.5 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10.7%, while gas demand decreased to 87.9 bcf/day, down 28.1% year-over-year [3] Inventory and Storage - The EIA reported a significant draw in natural gas inventories, with a reduction of 119 bcf for the week ending January 2, exceeding market expectations and the 5-year average draw [5] - As of January 6, European gas storage was 58% full, compared to a 5-year seasonal average of 72% [5] Rig Count - The number of active US natural gas drilling rigs decreased by one to 124 rigs, slightly below the recent high of 130 rigs, which was reached on November 28 [6]