Core Insights - U.S. net unauthorized immigration has rapidly declined, turning negative in February 2025, following a significant increase from early 2021 to early 2024, impacting demographic outlook, labor force participation, employment growth, and local labor markets [1][4][14] Immigration Trends - Net unauthorized immigration has been increasingly negative since early 2025, reaching -89,000 by July 2025, with a net loss of about 49,000 unauthorized immigrant workers in July alone [4][15] - Areas with the largest inflows from 2021 to 2024 are now experiencing the sharpest outflows, indicating potential further softening of those labor markets [5][25] Data and Methodology - The analysis utilizes individual-level data from immigration court proceedings and parole cases, along with aggregate information, to track trends in unauthorized immigration at national and local levels [3][8] - A bottom-up approach is employed to estimate unauthorized immigration entries and exits, allowing for monthly estimates of unauthorized immigrants through July 2025 [7][8] Employment Implications - The decline in net unauthorized immigration has implications for break-even employment growth, with a potential monthly average of -95,000 unauthorized immigrants by year-end 2025, significantly lower than previous estimates [16][17] - Working-age unauthorized immigration has averaged -37,000 per month since January 2025, contributing to an overall contraction of unauthorized immigrant employment by an average of 26,000 per month through July 2025 [18][20] Regional Insights - The geographic distribution of unauthorized immigration shows that counties in the West, southern states, and Northeast experienced the largest inflows during the surge period and are now facing the largest outflows [24][25] - The correlation between net unauthorized immigration during the surge and net emigration periods is -0.96, indicating a strong relationship between these trends [25]

Net immigration to Ireland falls sharply, data suggests https://t.co/tLv6aTcITE ...