Core Viewpoint - Arthur Hayes has ceased purchasing Bitcoin, indicating a wait for the Federal Reserve to expand the money supply before investing further [1][2] Group 1: Market Analysis - Hayes utilizes a "Net Liquidity" framework, which subtracts Treasury General Account (TGA) and Reverse Repo (RRP) balances from the Fed's total balance sheet to assess market conditions [2] - Current nominal prices are high, but real dollar liquidity has not sufficiently expanded to support a breakout above $90,000, leading Hayes to view the market as a potential trap for traders [2][3] - The market is currently caught between institutional accumulation and macro exhaustion, with Bitcoin trading below the critical $90,000 psychological level [6] Group 2: Price Levels and Predictions - A failure to break above $90,000 could lead to a decline towards $60,000, which is a crucial support level [6][7] - If Bitcoin breaks below $60,000, Hayes anticipates a "massive sell-off" due to cascading liquidations [7] - Wall Street is strategically buying Bitcoin but has not yet invested enough to pursue breakouts aggressively [7] Group 3: Economic Context - Hayes emphasizes that geopolitical tensions typically drive safe-haven assets, but the primary factor for Macro Crypto cycles is fiat debasement [3] - Without a return to Quantitative Easing, Hayes believes that the current market conditions cannot sustain asset prices, predicting downward movement if the Fed maintains its monetary policy [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, suggests that the cryptocurrency market will enter a "only up" mode once the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) reaches its target of $850 billion, with the current balance at $807 billion [1] Group 1 - The TGA balance is currently at $807 billion, indicating a significant amount of liquidity in the market [1] - Hayes believes that once the funds are fully withdrawn, liquidity will flow back into the market, potentially driving prices higher [1] - André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, argues that net liquidity has a weak correlation with Bitcoin [1]