Opposition leader María Corina Machado was injured last week while leaving Venezuela to receive her Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo, according to Norwegian news outlet Aftenposten https://t.co/R24asI1QTC ...

Trump’s claims about ending eight wars in his pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize have never quite added up https://t.co/ryQ4bKVZzm ...

I mean, everybody's just kind of losing their minds in the last couple of years. And it's also just the divisiveness between parties, creating more and more tumultuousness and chaos. >> Do you think Donald Trump is contributing to that divisiveness.>> I would say not. I don't think I don't believe so. >> Donald Trump's found on the other side.>> Exactly. >> He did post that video. Did you see that video.>> He does. He does. He does troll on Twitter and everything, but >> he's got that video where he flies o ...

Group 1 - The odds of Venezuelan politician María Corina Machado winning the Nobel Peace Prize have surged to 70%, a significant increase of 66 percentage points from the previous day [2] - In contrast, the odds for Donald Trump have decreased to 3%, while the probability for Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms stands at 15% [2] - Over $16 million has been wagered on the outcome, with predictions on Kalshi indicating a 67% chance for Machado and a 4% chance for Trump [3] Group 2 - Polymarket, a betting platform based on Polygon, allows users to place bets using the USDC stablecoin, although it is currently unavailable to U.S. residents [4] - Trump's supporters are actively promoting him as "The Peace President," advocating for his nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize following a peace agreement between Israel and Hamas [4][5] - Machado is recognized as a prominent figure in the Venezuelan opposition and a strong critic of the Nicolás Maduro regime [6]

Awards & Recognition - Former President Trump has been nominated for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize [1]

Political Landscape - A campaign is ongoing to nominate President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, potentially making him the fifth American president to receive this honor [1]

Market Opportunity - Prediction markets offer potential for high returns, exemplified by a 50% return on investment regardless of size [1] - A specific prediction market experienced $24 million in trading volume [1] Geopolitical & Investment Strategy - The industry should closely monitor Trump's Nobel Peace Prize odds within prediction markets [1] - Potential positive relations between Ukraine and Russia, possibly influenced by Trump, could impact investment opportunities [1]

Market Prediction & Geopolitical Risk - Prediction market observers are closely monitoring Trump's Nobel Peace Prize odds, currently at 4% [1] - Positive developments in Ukraine/Russia relations, potentially attributed to Trump's involvement, could significantly increase his chances [1] - Hamas has expressed readiness to immediately engage in negotiations through mediators [1]

Awards & Recognition - Donald Trump believes he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize [1] Political Commentary - Trump is brashly lobbying for the Nobel Peace Prize [1]

Claims Analysis - The report analyzes claims made by Donald Trump regarding his success in resolving global conflicts, suggesting he has "solved" between six and ten wars [1][2][15] - The White House identified conflicts Trump claims to have resolved, including those between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, India and Pakistan, Israel and Iran, Cambodia and Thailand, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Serbia and Kosovo [4] - The report questions the validity of these claims, stating that some conflicts are far from over, some are merely paused, and others are not wars at all [5][12][14] Geopolitical Implications - The agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, facilitated by Trump, reopens transportation routes and creates a transit corridor, but the border remains closed, and the deal is not a peace treaty [6] - Conflicts such as those between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, and India and Pakistan, saw temporary agreements or truces, but underlying issues remain unresolved [7][8] - The conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia is a diplomatic dispute over a dam, not an armed conflict, and Trump's claim that the US paid for the dam is disputed [13] - The situation between Serbia and Kosovo involves normalized economic relations but not full recognition, and Trump's efforts are credited with preventing violence [14] Negotiation Style - The report suggests that world leaders may be nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize to get things done, legitimizing his actions [16] - Trump's approach is characterized as deal-making rather than genuine peacemaking, focusing on photo opportunities and personal interests [17] - Trump's negotiation style is described as win-lose, where someone has to lose for him to win, making him a "terrible negotiator" [22][26][27] - The report contrasts Trump's approach with the possibility of win-win real estate deals, which he seemingly rejects [26] Authoritarianism and Fragility - The report suggests that Trump's approach is based on authoritarianism and fear, which are inherently fragile [30] - The report draws parallels to historical examples, suggesting that resistance is more resilient than tyranny [29]