Group 1 - Offshore oil from Brazil, Guyana, Suriname, and Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale is projected to be a key source of cost-competitive non-OPEC oil supply through 2030, with global liquids demand expected to peak at around 107 million barrels per day (bpd) in the 2030s [1] - Non-OPEC+ supply is anticipated to account for approximately 5.9 million bpd, or nearly 60%, of new conventional oil under development through 2030, with South America contributing 560,000 bpd of crude and condensate [1] - Brazil's offshore ultra-deepwater pre-salt oil fields are a significant driver of production growth, with major investments and new Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) units coming online [3] Group 2 - Current producing wells are expected to deliver less than half of their output by 2030, highlighting the necessity for sustained investment in both new and mature fields [2] - South America's deepwater capabilities position it well to provide competitive oil globally, although continued investment is essential as the supply gap is projected to widen after the mid-2030s [2] - Brazil's Lula Field has estimated reserves of 8.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), and the Búzios Field achieved a record production of 800,000 barrels per day in February 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Oil production from non-OPEC producers is expected to decline if oil prices drop to $60 per barrel, according to TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne [1] Group 1 - TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne highlighted the critical price point of $60 per barrel for oil, indicating that below this level, production from outside OPEC will start to decrease [1]