August 1, 2025 09:55 PM GMT US Economics | North America Are large downward revisions to nonfarm payrolls associated with higher recession probability? The July employment report brought downward revisions to May and June employment of 258k, the largest downward revision since 1979 outside of COVID. That said, empirical analysis indicates revisions have only marginal signal about recession risk. The change in current-month employment matters more. Key Takeaways | Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Michael T Gapen Chi ...