Core Viewpoint - Vistra's stock has seen significant growth over the past year, but recent warnings about the challenges of a nuclear power renaissance in the U.S. may impact future performance [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Vistra's shares have increased by over 120% in the past year, driven by expectations of rising demand for nuclear power due to AI's energy needs and support from President Trump [3]. - However, shares fell by 4.1% following concerns about the feasibility of the nuclear renaissance plan [1]. Group 2: Nuclear Renaissance Challenges - The target set by President Trump for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to approve reactor design applications within 18 months is considered aggressive and potentially unrealistic, as typical approval times can extend to five years [4]. - The Journal suggests that any growth in nuclear power supply may come from extending licenses of existing reactors or restarting closed reactors, rather than new constructions [4]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - Analysts project strong earnings growth for Vistra, forecasting over 20% annual growth, which could justify the stock's current valuation of 27.5 times earnings [5]. - Vistra's stock appears approximately 20% cheaper when assessed on free cash flow (FCF) compared to GAAP earnings, with a valuation of 23 times FCF and a modest dividend yield of 0.5% [6].

Industry Overview - President Trump signed an executive order to boost the nuclear energy industry, aiming to overhaul the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and expedite the development of new nuclear power reactors [1] - The executive order is expected to catalyze a resurgence in the nuclear sector, potentially leading to increased demand for nuclear energy [1] Company Insights: NuScale Power - NuScale Power's stock surged following the executive order, reaching all-time highs, although the company currently lacks a marketable product [4][6] - The company is developing small modular reactors (SMRs), which are cheaper and quicker to build compared to traditional nuclear plants, and can be transported closer to population centers [7] - A significant milestone for NuScale will occur in 2025 when RoPower decides on purchasing six SMRs, which could pave the way for future contracts [8] Company Insights: Constellation Energy - Constellation Energy is the leading nuclear power producer in the U.S., with a capacity of 22.1 gigawatts, significantly higher than its nearest competitor [10] - The company sells power under long-term fixed-rate agreements, allowing it to benefit from rising power rates [11] - Constellation is investing in clean energy, including a partnership with Microsoft to restart the Three Mile Island Unit 1 nuclear plant, and is exploring SMR opportunities [12][13] - The company anticipates over 13% compound annual growth in adjusted operating earnings through 2030, with potential for accelerated growth if it finalizes its acquisition of Calpine [14] Company Insights: Cameco - Cameco is positioned to benefit from increased uranium demand as the U.S. aims to quadruple its nuclear energy capacity by 2050 [15] - The company highlighted that nearly 70% of the uranium requirements for future nuclear reactors remain uncovered, indicating a need for approximately 3.2 billion pounds of uranium by 2045 [17] - As one of the largest uranium producers, Cameco is experiencing increased long-term contracting activity and holds a 49% stake in Westinghouse Electric, enhancing its competitive edge [18] - Cameco has a strong financial position, having paid dividends annually since 1991, with a 33% increase last year, making it a favorable investment in the nuclear sector [19]