Welcome back. Well, it has been an incredibly busy Monday morning of news. The Supreme Court overturning some of President Trump's tariffs on Friday after striking down his emergency youth author uh use authorization.One of the top stories. The Trump administration responded immediately by announcing global tariffs first at 10% then raising that to 15% on Saturday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant joined me yesterday to telling me that revenue from the tariffs will not drop and they've already begun to repl ...

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices experienced a significant decline, with WTI crude oil down 2.77% and RBOB gasoline down 3.18%, attributed to easing US-Iran tensions and a risk-off sentiment in asset markets [1][2] Geopolitical Factors - Easing geopolitical risks between the US and Iran have contributed to lower crude prices, as President Trump expressed a preference for a nuclear deal [2] - The US is considering military actions in the Middle East, including seizing Iranian oil tankers and deploying additional naval forces, which could impact oil supply and prices if tensions escalate [3] Supply Dynamics - There is a notable increase in crude supplies in floating storage, with approximately 290 million barrels of Russian and Iranian crude currently stored, representing over a 50% increase from the previous year [2] - Venezuelan crude exports have risen significantly, from 498,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December to 800,000 bpd in January, further contributing to global oil supply and bearish price pressures [4] Market Sentiment - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to support oil prices due to restrictions on Russian crude, as the Kremlin indicates no resolution is in sight, maintaining a risk premium in the market [5]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are rising, with gasoline reaching a 2.5-month high, driven by a decline in the dollar index and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][3] Geopolitical Risks - The US has advised ships to avoid the Strait of Hormuz due to rising geopolitical risks, which has added a risk premium to crude oil prices [3] - Concerns over the potential failure of US-Iran negotiations regarding uranium enrichment could lead to military action, disrupting oil production and shipping lanes [3] Market Dynamics - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to a 6-month high, positively impacting energy demand and supporting crude prices [2] - An increase in Venezuelan crude exports, rising from 498,000 bpd in December to 800,000 bpd in January, is contributing to global oil supply and exerting bearish pressure on prices [4] Ongoing Conflicts - The unresolved territorial issues in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are likely to prolong restrictions on Russian crude, which supports higher oil prices [5]

Iran’s regime is desperate for a nuclear deal with America, explains an expert. But it does not want to appear a pushover.“We are ready for negotiation, but not for dictation,” Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, told us in an interview https://t.co/GCCNfafBt6 ...

Iran, far from stewing in resentment, is ready to strike a “fair and balanced” nuclear deal with America, its foreign minister told The Economist in a rare interview https://t.co/jsc4RluCAuPhoto: Arash Khamooshi/Polaris/Eyevine https://t.co/EshuqyxMBW ...

Geopolitical Strategy - A window of opportunity exists for nuclear negotiations with Iran [1] - The US government should consider sending an envoy to Iran to explore potential nuclear deals [1]

Geopolitical Risk Assessment - The analysis suggests Kim Jong Un is not seeking peaceful coexistence with the rest of the world [1] - A careless nuclear deal with North Korea is considered worse than no deal at all [1] Nuclear Disarmament Concerns - The report highlights potential dangers associated with nuclear negotiations involving North Korea [1]

Geopolitical Implications - Russia's President Putin indicates the US is making "sincere efforts" to end the war in Ukraine [1] - A potential nuclear deal is being floated [1] Political Events - A summit between Putin and Trump is scheduled for Friday in Alaska [1]

Geopolitical Risk - France, Germany, and the United Kingdom threatened to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran [1] - The threat is contingent on Iran not reaching a nuclear deal by the end of August [1]

Geopolitical Analysis - Israel's defense minister stated Iran crossed red lines with its strikes against Israeli cities [1] - Israel's actions, referred to as "Operation Kitchen Sink," targeted Iran's military command structure, signaling a potential for further escalation [2] - Iran's air defenses are considered weak, making them vulnerable to potential Israeli attacks [3] - The analysis suggests Israel might target Iran's nuclear infrastructure to prevent future conflicts and promote regional integration based on the Abraham Accords [4] Nuclear Capabilities and Negotiations - Iran is estimated to be approximately two to three weeks away from having enough fissile material for a nuclear device, but delivery mechanisms are still a challenge [7] - The Trump administration viewed Iran's nuclear program as a medium-term problem, while Israel considered it an existential threat [8] - Israel's actions may have achieved some of the goals that a nuclear deal might have accomplished [9] - The analysis raises the question of whether the U S and Israel were more tightly coordinated than it appeared regarding Iran [10] US-Israel Relations - Tensions existed between Israel and the Trump administration regarding negotiations with Hamas and the Houthis [12] - The Trump administration seemingly benefited from the situation without direct US military involvement, setting back Iran's nuclear capabilities [13]