Market Overview - U.S. stock futures showed mixed movements following a meeting between President Trump and President Xi, which resulted in significant agreements, including reduced U.S. fentanyl tariffs and increased soybean imports from China [1][2] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on interest rates created downward pressure on stocks, indicating that another rate cut is not guaranteed [1][2] Treasury Yields and Market Sentiment - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.07%, while the two-year bond was at 3.59%, with a 70.4% likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [2] - Major indices showed slight changes: Dow Jones down 0.19%, S&P 500 up 0.03%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.06%, and Russell 2000 up 0.36% [2] Company Performance Highlights - **Alphabet Inc.** reported a revenue of $102.35 billion and earnings of $2.87 per share, exceeding expectations, leading to a premarket increase of 7.57% [6] - **Meta Platforms Inc.** saw a decline of 7.39% despite reporting earnings, as its diluted earnings per share of $1.05 were not directly comparable to Wall Street estimates due to a significant tax charge [6] - **Microsoft Corp.** experienced a 2.78% decline, estimating second-quarter sales between $79.50 billion and $80.60 billion, slightly below market expectations [6] - **Amazon.com Inc.** was down 0.50% ahead of its earnings report, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.57 per share on revenue of $177.74 billion [12] - **Apple Inc.** shares rose 0.72% as analysts anticipated earnings of $1.77 per share on revenue of $102.17 billion [12] Analyst Insights - Market strategist Ed Yardeni expressed caution regarding the economy and stock market, warning against fueling speculation through easier monetary policy [9] - LPL's Chief Equity Strategist Jeff Buchbinder noted that despite historical fears of an "October Effect," the S&P 500 is showing strong gains this year, although the team remains neutral on equities [10]

Core Insights - The "October Effect" is a psychological belief that stocks tend to decline in October, although historical data does not support this notion [1][8] - October 2025 has seen increased market volatility due to a government shutdown and economic uncertainty, yet the market is reaching new historic highs [2] - Investors are showing a strong preference for large-cap equity ETFs, particularly those tied to the S&P 500, despite concerns about economic growth [3][4] ETF Flows and Performance - Equity ETFs accounted for 50% of all ETF asset flows in October, with a notable focus on large-cap exposure [3] - The top three ETFs have captured approximately 37% of all equity ETF flows, with significant inflows into the Invesco QQQ Trust, Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, and others [4][6] - Conversely, small-cap ETFs like the iShares Russell 2000 and Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF have experienced significant outflows, indicating a lack of diversification interest [4] Gold Investment Trends - Gold has emerged as a favored asset class, attracting substantial investment as a hedge against inflation and market volatility [7] - In October, gold ETFs have seen significant inflows, with the SPDR Gold Shares, SPDR Gold Minishares Trust, and iShares Gold Trust leading the way [9] - Gold's performance has been strong, with a 7% gain in October, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven asset [8]