7 October 2025 | 10:06PM EDT Commodities Research OIL ANALYST Rising Stocks; 2025-2026 Surplus View on Track Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 n O ...

Pumping jacks works in an oil field. Photographer: Martin Divisek/Bloomberg Oil rose after a government report showed a decline in domestic product stockpiles, while strength in broader markets supported crude prices. West Texas Intermediate climbed as much as 1.9% to trade above $62 a barrel, aided by gains in US equities. The Energy Information Administration reported a 763,000-barrel weekly drop at the Cushing hub in Oklahoma, as well as lower oil-product holdings across the board. US distillate stock ...

OPEC+ supply hike chatter and Iraq’s Kirkuk-Ceyhan restart sparked the steepest daily oil price drop in nearly two months. China Triples ‘Indonesian’ Oil Imports as Iranian Tankers Shift Routes - China has posted a staggering increase in crude imports from Indonesia, a country that has supplied only one cargo of condensate to China last year, as Iranian sellers get increasingly innovative in their ship-to-ship operations.- According to customs data published by Beijing, Chinese imports of Indonesian c ...

Last Updated: 4 hours ago Russia-Ukraine Tension Lifts Oil Futures for Second Day By Anthony Harrup, Dow Jones Newswires Crude futures post back-to-back gains amid rising tensions over Russia, with continuing Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure raising concerns about supply. "The Russian bid continues to support crude oil prices," Mizuho's Robert Yawger says in a note. CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Sept. 24, 2025: S&P 500 Falls a Second Day Cryptocurrencies Data Magazine Markets Stock Picks B ...

Summary of Weekly Oil Data Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically crude oil and refined products in the United States. Key Points Crude Oil Inventory - Crude oil inventories decreased by **9.2 million barrels (Mb)**, significantly more than the consensus estimate of a **0.9 Mb** draw and the 5-year average draw of **2.7 Mb** [1] - API data indicated a draw of **3.4 Mb** [1] - Net crude imports fell by **3.1 million barrels per day (Mb/d)** week-over-week [1] - Crude oil production slightly decreased by **13 thousand barrels per day (kb/d)** to **13.5 Mb/d** [1] Refinery Utilization - Refinery utilization decreased by **160 basis points (bps)** week-over-week to **93.3%** of operable capacity, compared to a consensus decrease of **40 bps** [1] Product Demand - Implied oil products consumption increased by **0.9 Mb/d** week-over-week to **20.6 Mb/d**, reversing the previous week's decline [2] - Gasoline consumption led the increase, rising by **0.3 Mb/d** [2] - Total demand on a 4-week average increased by **2%** week-over-week, reaching **20.7 Mb/d** [2] Product Stocks - Total product inventories rose by **10.5 Mb** week-over-week to **867 Mb** [3] - The increase was primarily driven by "Others" (+**7.5 Mb**), followed by distillate (+**4.0 Mb**) and propane (+**1.3 Mb**) [3] - Gasoline stocks fell by **2.3 Mb**, contrary to the consensus expectation of an increase of **0.1 Mb** [3] Detailed Inventory Data - Crude oil production was reported at **13,482 kb/d**, with a week-over-week change of **-13 kb/d** [4] - Crude oil imports were **5,692 kb/d**, down **579 kb/d** [4] - Exports increased significantly by **2,532 kb/d** to **5,277 kb/d** [4] - Total crude oil stocks were reported at **415.4 Mb**, down **9.3 Mb** [4] Market Implications - The significant draw in crude oil inventories and the increase in product demand suggest a tightening market, which could lead to upward pressure on oil prices [1][2][3] - The decrease in refinery utilization may indicate a cautious approach by refiners in response to fluctuating demand and inventory levels [1] Additional Insights - The report highlights the volatility in product stocks, particularly the unexpected decline in gasoline inventories, which could impact pricing and supply strategies moving forward [3] - The data reflects broader trends in the oil market, including shifts in consumer behavior and potential geopolitical influences on supply and demand dynamics [2][3] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the weekly oil report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the oil industry in the United States.

Summary of OPEC+ September Supply Hike Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically the actions and policies of OPEC+ regarding crude oil production levels and market dynamics. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Production Increase Announcement**: OPEC+ announced a production increase of 0.55 million barrels per day (mb/d) for September, aligning with previous expectations and the pace set in August [2][3][4] 2. **Completion of Previous Cuts**: This increase will fully unwind the 2.2 mb/d of voluntary cuts previously implemented, along with a 0.3 mb/d increase in required production from the UAE [2][4] 3. **Cumulative Supply Increase**: The expected cumulative increase in OPEC+ crude supply from March to September is projected to reach 1.7 mb/d, which is approximately two-thirds of the joint quota increase [2][4] 4. **Geopolitical and Economic Factors**: OPEC+ policy remains flexible due to geopolitical uncertainties, and it is assumed that production levels will remain unchanged after September unless significant supply disruptions occur [2][7] 5. **Price Forecast**: The price forecast for Brent crude is maintained at an average of $64 per barrel in Q4 2025 and $56 in 2026, with noted risks from geopolitical pressures and economic conditions [2][18] 6. **OECD Stock Builds**: There is an expectation of an acceleration in OECD commercial stock builds, which could impact OPEC+ production decisions moving forward [9][17] 7. **Supply Growth Outside OPEC+**: Strong production growth outside of OPEC+ is anticipated, with an expected rise of 1.75 mb/d this year, limiting the room for further OPEC+ production increases [10][11] 8. **Risks to Price Forecast**: Upside risks to the price forecast are associated with pressures on Russian and Iranian oil supplies, while downside risks stem from rising US tariffs and economic data suggesting a potential recession [19][20] Additional Important Content 1. **Production Contributions**: Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to contribute significantly to the production increase, accounting for 60% and 20% of the ramp-up, respectively [4] 2. **Compensation Cuts**: The translation rate from required to actual production is expected to improve as compensation commitments decrease over time [4] 3. **Market Fundamentals**: The supply increase is motivated by a steady global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals, as indicated by low oil inventories [3] 4. **Future OPEC+ Meetings**: The next meeting of OPEC+ is scheduled for September 7, which will be crucial for future production decisions [13] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the OPEC+ conference call, highlighting the industry's current state, production strategies, and market forecasts.

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - IEA 报告显示全球石油需求下降，美国和中国是主要降幅来源 [1] - 石油需求下降可能预示着美国乃至全球经济放缓 [2][3] - 分析师普遍预计油价将保持平稳 [2] - 尽管美国经济可能放缓，但目前程度温和，与年初的担忧相反 [3] Tariffs & Trade - 总统可能对欧盟和加拿大征收关税，市场对此的反应可能反映出关税最终水平将低于目前水平的预期 [4][5][6] - 关税可能导致市场动荡，但市场主要关注的是仍然具有建设性的宏观背景 [6] - 巴西 ETF 因关税而大幅下跌约 5%，可能存在过度反应 [7] - 墨西哥和加拿大等国可能受到关税影响较大，而中国受到的影响相对较小 [9] - 从长远来看，企业将适应并找到应对新环境的方法 [10][11] Investment Strategies - 在当前具有建设性的宏观背景下，公司更倾向于投资企业债券，因为可以获得更高的收益 [12] - 许多公司的资产负债表表现强劲，公司开始关注高收益和新兴市场债务 [13] - 在没有经济衰退的情况下，违约率将保持在较低水平 [13] - 建议投资者在当前环境下采取更积极的风险承担策略，而不是仅仅关注国债 [14]

Group 1 - The IEA report forecasts that non-OPEC+ countries' oil supply will increase by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and by 0.94 million bpd by 2026 [1] - Global oil supply is expected to rise by 2.1 million bpd this year and by 1.3 million bpd in 2026 [1] - Countries affected by tariffs are projected to experience the largest decline in oil demand [1] Group 2 - Oil demand growth in the second quarter has decreased to 550,000 bpd year-on-year, down from 1.1 million bpd in the first quarter [1] - Recent months have seen a "significant" slowdown in oil demand [1]

Group 1: Market Reaction - Major international oil and oil-related stocks such as TotalEnergies, APA, and Torm plc experienced significant rallies, with stock increases of 2.6%, 4.4%, and 3.4% respectively [1] - The oil and gas prices had a "relief rally" due to OPEC+ announcements of supply increases being less than feared [3][4] Group 2: OPEC+ Supply Decisions - OPEC+ announced an increase in oil supply for July by 411,000 barrels per day, which was in line with market expectations [4] - The cartel had previously agreed to voluntary cuts of approximately 2.2 million barrels per day in January 2024 to support oil prices, but plans to phase out these cuts gradually [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ukraine's recent strike against Russia's bomber fleet raised concerns about potential escalations in the conflict, which could impact Russian oil supply [6][7] - Russia is the third-largest oil producer, supplying about 12% of global oil, making its supply situation critical in the context of geopolitical tensions [7] Group 4: Strategic Implications for OPEC+ - OPEC+ increasing production despite declining oil prices may be a strategy to address quota violations by member countries and to align with U.S. interests for lower oil prices [10] - Saudi Arabia's potential price war strategy could aim to undermine U.S. shale production, reflecting a competitive approach in the oil market [11] Group 5: Investment Considerations - Oil and gas stocks may serve as a hedge against geopolitical turmoil, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while also providing substantial dividends [12]

Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com 26 May 2025 | 7:59PM EDT Oil Comment: GS Top Projects Takeaways: Strong Supply in 2025-2026, Tighter Later n We identify takeaways from our equity analysts' 2025 Top Projects review of the world's major upstream oil projects. This review supports our below-the-forwards Brent/WTI oil price forecasts of $60/56 for the remainder of 2025 and $56/52 in 2026, but has positive implications for prices in the long term. n 2025-2026: Strong Non-OPEC ex Sh ...