09 Jan 2026 07:36:45 ET │ 28 pages Oil Monitor The White House is pushing Venezuelan oil to the US, rediverting crude flows, as geopolitical risks remain CITI'S TAKE As the situation in Venezuela continues to develop, the US is trying to move quickly to get oil to flow, to ease oil prices amid ongoing affordability concerns, among wider domestic political challenges ahead of US midterm elections in Nov'26. The first measure appears to be moving 30-50-m bbls of Venezuela oil to the US, which could divert oth ...

Core Insights - Gas prices have decreased to an average of $2.89 per gallon, marking the lowest December prices since 2020, despite increased demand due to holiday travel [1][2] Gas Prices Overview - The national average for regular gasoline fell more than 4 cents last week to $2.89 [1] - AAA described the year as "stable" for gas prices, with no significant spikes [2] Crude Oil Supply and Prices - The drop in gas prices is attributed to a significant oversupply of crude oil, with prices falling below $60 per barrel [3] - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading around $56.55 per barrel, while Brent Crude is near $59.82 per barrel [4] State-Specific Gas Prices - The states with the cheapest gas prices include: - Oklahoma: $2.34 - Arkansas: $2.46 - Iowa: $2.47 - Colorado: $2.49 - Wisconsin: $2.51 [5] - The states with the highest prices include: - Hawaii: $4.43 - California: $4.33 - Washington: $3.96 - Alaska: $3.59 - Oregon: $3.57 [5] Future Projections - EIA's November Short-Term Energy Outlook predicts Brent Crude prices will decline from $69 per barrel in 2025 to $55 per barrel next year, with retail gas prices expected to hover around $3 per gallon in 2026 [14]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC does not anticipate an oil supply surplus for 2026, emphasizing that recent media interpretations of their Monthly Oil Market Report were inaccurate [1][4]. Group 1: OPEC's Projections - OPEC expects oil production from non-OPEC countries to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day by 2026, while global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.6 million barrels per day, reaching a total of 106.2 million barrels daily [2]. - The Monthly Oil Market Report from OPEC is described as "very basic," suggesting that the information is straightforward and should not be misinterpreted [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following OPEC's revised forecast, which shifted from a projected deficit to a balanced market, there was a selloff in oil markets, leading to a decline in international benchmark prices [1]. - Analysts expect OPEC to continue increasing production after a brief pause at the beginning of the year, with a majority of traders anticipating further monthly additions to OPEC's output [4].

Core Insights - Major oil companies like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Shell are increasing crude oil production despite concerns about a global oil glut and rising exports from OPEC nations [1][2] - The production increases may lead to a weaker oil price environment, with U.S. benchmark prices hovering around $60 per barrel, which is a critical threshold for profitability [2] - Exxon Mobil and Chevron are focusing on growth in the Permian Basin, with Exxon achieving a record production of 1.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q3 [3][4] Company-Specific Insights - Exxon Mobil's global production rose from 4.63 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q2 to 4.77 million in Q3, with a target of 5.4 million barrels by 2030, primarily driven by the Permian and offshore Guyana [4] - Chevron's production in the Permian reached 1.06 million barrels daily, despite efforts to cut capital expenditure and maintain plateaued production [5] - Chevron's CEO highlighted efficiency gains, stating that strong performance continues with fewer drilling rigs and completions, expecting good momentum into 2026 [6] Industry Outlook - Shell's CEO noted potential oversupply in 2026, indicating headwinds in supply-demand fundamentals in the short to medium term, but maintains a long-term positive outlook on crude prices [7]

Summary of the Oil Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the oil industry, particularly the dynamics surrounding OPEC+ production decisions and global oil supply and demand forecasts. Key Points and Arguments OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has decided to raise required production by 0.14 million barrels per day (mb/d) for November, consistent with previous expectations [2][10] - The group remains focused on market conditions, indicating a cautious approach to production increases [10] Price Forecasts - The Brent/WTI price forecast remains unchanged at $64/$60 for Q4 2025 and $56/$52 for 2026 [2][18] - The forecast suggests that strong supply will likely lead to lower oil prices over the next year [18] Supply and Demand Dynamics - A global oil surplus is expected to average 2.0 mb/d from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, driven by a 4.1 mb/d increase in global supply [2][21] - Global demand growth has been nudged up to 1.0 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026, reflecting stronger demand forecasts [35] Global Supply Changes - The increase in global supply is attributed to record-high US crude and natural gas liquids (NGL) production, alongside an upgrade in Iraq's supply, which offsets a downgrade in Russian production [26][30] - US crude and NGL supply reached all-time highs in July 2025, with a smaller expected decline of 0.3 mb/d by December 2026 [27] OECD Stock Builds - OECD commercial stocks are expected to absorb over 30% of the global builds in 2025-2026, with a projected increase of 0.65 mb/d [45] - The analysis indicates that the pace of builds in global stocks is accelerating, which is expected to impact oil prices negatively [51] Price Risk Assessment - Risks to the price forecast are two-sided but skewed modestly to the upside, particularly due to potential declines in Russian production [56][61] - Scenarios include a potential drop in Russian supply to 8.5 mb/d by December 2026, which could raise Brent/WTI prices to $70/$66 [57] Conclusion - The analysis suggests that while the oil market is currently stable, various factors, including OPEC+ production decisions, global supply dynamics, and geopolitical risks, could significantly influence future price movements and market conditions [56][61] Additional Important Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring global visible stock builds, which have accelerated recently, indicating potential shifts in supply-demand balance [4][12] - The analysis also emphasizes the role of geopolitical factors, particularly concerning Russian production and its impact on global oil prices [30][34]

Group 1 - Oil prices increased following a report indicating a decline in stockpiles at the Cushing storage hub, with Brent trading above $66 per barrel after a 1.8 million-barrel weekly drop was reported [1] - The American Petroleum Institute noted a decrease in oil-product holdings, although it estimated an increase in nationwide crude stockpiles, which remain near seasonal lows [1] Group 2 - Price gains are limited by the overall outlook of ample global supplies, as OPEC+ is increasing production and the US is expected to achieve record output this year [2] - Russian oil exports are nearing a 16-month high, influenced by Ukrainian drone strikes affecting domestic refinery processing [2] Group 3 - There is a noted disconnect between paper pricing and the anticipated surplus in global oil balances, with the market stabilizing in the $65 to $70 range [3] - Goldman Sachs has maintained a bearish outlook on oil, predicting an average daily surplus of about 2 million barrels from this quarter through next year, which is expected to lower prices, with Brent projected to average $56 per barrel in 2026 [3]

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ speculation about a potential doubling or tripling of the expected 137,000 b/d supply hike has led to significant declines in oil prices, with ICE Brent dropping to $67 per barrel [7] - The successful restart of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline in Iraq has resumed Kurdish oil flows towards the Mediterranean, with reported flows of 150,000-160,000 b/d [8] Group 2: Chinese Oil Imports - China has significantly increased its crude imports from Indonesia, reaching 2.7 million tonnes in August, tripling from the previous month [3] - The rise in Indonesian imports coincides with Iranian tankers shifting routes to Indonesia, as Malaysia has imposed new regulations on ship-to-ship transfers [4] Group 3: Company Developments - ExxonMobil plans to lay off 2,000 workers, representing 3% of its global workforce, as part of a restructuring following its acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources [5] - BP has approved its $5 billion Tiber-Guadalupe project in the US Gulf of Mexico, aiming for production of 80,000 b/d by 2030 [6] - TotalEnergies is considering selling its renewable power holdings outside of Europe, the US, and Brazil, which may include its $8 billion portfolio in India [6]

Group 1 - Crude oil futures have experienced back-to-back gains due to rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, with Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure raising supply concerns [1] - The Russian situation continues to support crude oil prices, as noted by Mizuho's Robert Yawger [1] - The EIA reported a decline of 607,000 barrels in U.S. crude stocks, contributing to price support despite rising imports and lower exports [2]

Summary of Weekly Oil Data Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically crude oil and refined products in the United States. Key Points Crude Oil Inventory - Crude oil inventories decreased by **9.2 million barrels (Mb)**, significantly more than the consensus estimate of a **0.9 Mb** draw and the 5-year average draw of **2.7 Mb** [1] - API data indicated a draw of **3.4 Mb** [1] - Net crude imports fell by **3.1 million barrels per day (Mb/d)** week-over-week [1] - Crude oil production slightly decreased by **13 thousand barrels per day (kb/d)** to **13.5 Mb/d** [1] Refinery Utilization - Refinery utilization decreased by **160 basis points (bps)** week-over-week to **93.3%** of operable capacity, compared to a consensus decrease of **40 bps** [1] Product Demand - Implied oil products consumption increased by **0.9 Mb/d** week-over-week to **20.6 Mb/d**, reversing the previous week's decline [2] - Gasoline consumption led the increase, rising by **0.3 Mb/d** [2] - Total demand on a 4-week average increased by **2%** week-over-week, reaching **20.7 Mb/d** [2] Product Stocks - Total product inventories rose by **10.5 Mb** week-over-week to **867 Mb** [3] - The increase was primarily driven by "Others" (+**7.5 Mb**), followed by distillate (+**4.0 Mb**) and propane (+**1.3 Mb**) [3] - Gasoline stocks fell by **2.3 Mb**, contrary to the consensus expectation of an increase of **0.1 Mb** [3] Detailed Inventory Data - Crude oil production was reported at **13,482 kb/d**, with a week-over-week change of **-13 kb/d** [4] - Crude oil imports were **5,692 kb/d**, down **579 kb/d** [4] - Exports increased significantly by **2,532 kb/d** to **5,277 kb/d** [4] - Total crude oil stocks were reported at **415.4 Mb**, down **9.3 Mb** [4] Market Implications - The significant draw in crude oil inventories and the increase in product demand suggest a tightening market, which could lead to upward pressure on oil prices [1][2][3] - The decrease in refinery utilization may indicate a cautious approach by refiners in response to fluctuating demand and inventory levels [1] Additional Insights - The report highlights the volatility in product stocks, particularly the unexpected decline in gasoline inventories, which could impact pricing and supply strategies moving forward [3] - The data reflects broader trends in the oil market, including shifts in consumer behavior and potential geopolitical influences on supply and demand dynamics [2][3] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the weekly oil report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the oil industry in the United States.

Summary of OPEC+ September Supply Hike Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically the actions and policies of OPEC+ regarding crude oil production levels and market dynamics. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Production Increase Announcement**: OPEC+ announced a production increase of 0.55 million barrels per day (mb/d) for September, aligning with previous expectations and the pace set in August [2][3][4] 2. **Completion of Previous Cuts**: This increase will fully unwind the 2.2 mb/d of voluntary cuts previously implemented, along with a 0.3 mb/d increase in required production from the UAE [2][4] 3. **Cumulative Supply Increase**: The expected cumulative increase in OPEC+ crude supply from March to September is projected to reach 1.7 mb/d, which is approximately two-thirds of the joint quota increase [2][4] 4. **Geopolitical and Economic Factors**: OPEC+ policy remains flexible due to geopolitical uncertainties, and it is assumed that production levels will remain unchanged after September unless significant supply disruptions occur [2][7] 5. **Price Forecast**: The price forecast for Brent crude is maintained at an average of $64 per barrel in Q4 2025 and $56 in 2026, with noted risks from geopolitical pressures and economic conditions [2][18] 6. **OECD Stock Builds**: There is an expectation of an acceleration in OECD commercial stock builds, which could impact OPEC+ production decisions moving forward [9][17] 7. **Supply Growth Outside OPEC+**: Strong production growth outside of OPEC+ is anticipated, with an expected rise of 1.75 mb/d this year, limiting the room for further OPEC+ production increases [10][11] 8. **Risks to Price Forecast**: Upside risks to the price forecast are associated with pressures on Russian and Iranian oil supplies, while downside risks stem from rising US tariffs and economic data suggesting a potential recession [19][20] Additional Important Content 1. **Production Contributions**: Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to contribute significantly to the production increase, accounting for 60% and 20% of the ramp-up, respectively [4] 2. **Compensation Cuts**: The translation rate from required to actual production is expected to improve as compensation commitments decrease over time [4] 3. **Market Fundamentals**: The supply increase is motivated by a steady global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals, as indicated by low oil inventories [3] 4. **Future OPEC+ Meetings**: The next meeting of OPEC+ is scheduled for September 7, which will be crucial for future production decisions [13] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the OPEC+ conference call, highlighting the industry's current state, production strategies, and market forecasts.