You know, Sema, earlier today our European colleagues, they had a official on from the IEA. The IIA IEA out with a report talking about oil supply and demand and and very notable part of it, they said demands lower just globally with about half of those downgrades and declines coming from the US and China. What does that say to you about the US market.Is that possibly a signal uh of what's going on in the US economy and maybe even a foreshadowing of what we could see coming up in earning season. I think it' ...

第二季度石油需求同比增幅降至55万桶/日，一季度为110万桶/日。 近几个月石油需求"显著"放缓。 IEA月报：预计非OPEC+国家的石油供应量今年将增加140万桶/日，2026年将增加94万桶/日。 预计今年全球石油供应量将增加210万桶/日，2026年将增加130万桶/日。 预计受关税影响的国家石油需求降幅最大。 ...

1 July 2025 | 10:10PM EDT Oil Tracker: Global Stocks Increase Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting Crude oil prices remained roughly unchanged week-on-week as the market focus shifts from the ceasefire in the Middle East to this Sunday's virtual OPEC+ meeting where eight members will decide on August production. We continue to expect the group to announce another 411kb/d increase in required production because: We assume the August production hike to be the last one as a large inflow of non-OPEC ex shale projects softens ...

9 June 2025 | 9:44PM EDT Oil Tracker: Price Recovery Amid Easing Demand Concerns and Mixed Tightness Signals Brent prices rose by $3 to $67/bbl over the past 10 days on: 1) fading demand fears, 2) downside risks to North American supply, and 3) geopolitical tensions between Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Iran. Prices rose despite mixed signals about physical tightness—including rising inventories—and about OPEC+ supply. The US May jobs report and ISM surveys suggest the economy is slowing slightly. However, mark ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil industry but indicates a potential pause in production increases and marginally lower prices in the second half of 2025, suggesting a cautious outlook [5][3]. Core Insights - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by an additional 411 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in July, which aligns with market expectations [2] - The total production increase from OPEC+ members will reach 1.37 million barrels per day (Mb/d) out of the intended 2.5 Mb/d over 18 months, achieving the production level initially targeted for early 2026 [5] - The market is expected to experience a surplus of 0.3 Mb/d in the third quarter of 2025 and 0.7 Mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to the additional production [3] Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ members are set to add 411 kb/d in July, which was higher than the previously forecasted 138 kb/d [2] - The group has already implemented 1.37 Mb/d of the planned 2.5 Mb/d increase, indicating a significant ramp-up in production [5] Market Dynamics - The anticipated surplus in oil supply is projected to be 0.3 Mb/d in Q3 2025 and 0.7 Mb/d in Q4 2025, which could lead to downward pressure on prices if production increases continue [3] - The report suggests that demand will peak between March and August, with a decline expected in September, further influencing price dynamics [5] Price Forecast - The base case scenario anticipates a pause in production increases and a slight decrease in oil prices to approximately $62 per barrel in the second half of 2025 [5]

Group 1: Market Reaction - Major international oil and oil-related stocks such as TotalEnergies, APA, and Torm plc experienced significant rallies, with stock increases of 2.6%, 4.4%, and 3.4% respectively [1] - The oil and gas prices had a "relief rally" due to OPEC+ announcements of supply increases being less than feared [3][4] Group 2: OPEC+ Supply Decisions - OPEC+ announced an increase in oil supply for July by 411,000 barrels per day, which was in line with market expectations [4] - The cartel had previously agreed to voluntary cuts of approximately 2.2 million barrels per day in January 2024 to support oil prices, but plans to phase out these cuts gradually [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ukraine's recent strike against Russia's bomber fleet raised concerns about potential escalations in the conflict, which could impact Russian oil supply [6][7] - Russia is the third-largest oil producer, supplying about 12% of global oil, making its supply situation critical in the context of geopolitical tensions [7] Group 4: Strategic Implications for OPEC+ - OPEC+ increasing production despite declining oil prices may be a strategy to address quota violations by member countries and to align with U.S. interests for lower oil prices [10] - Saudi Arabia's potential price war strategy could aim to undermine U.S. shale production, reflecting a competitive approach in the oil market [11] Group 5: Investment Considerations - Oil and gas stocks may serve as a hedge against geopolitical turmoil, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while also providing substantial dividends [12]

Geopolitical news over the last week had an offsetting effect on oil prices. Cautiously optimistic reports on the fifth round of US-Iran nuclear talks over the weekend offset earlier concerns about a potential attack on Iran nuclear facilities. While the current license allowing Chevron Corporation or its subsidiaries to operate in Venezuela expires today, the US Administration reportedly issued Chevron a waiver to conduct minimal maintenance on equipment in Venezuela. Also on sanctioned supply, increased U ...

We assume OPEC8+ will keep required production flat after this last July production hike as a large inflow of new ex-shale projects enters the market later this year, economic growth decelerates noticeably in Q3 under tariff pressure, and the pace of builds in oil stocks picks up. However, we see the risks to our OPEC8+ supply path as skewed to the upside, especially if compliance doesn't improve or if hard demand data surprise further to the upside. Geopolitical news over the last week had an offsetting ef ...

Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com 26 May 2025 | 7:59PM EDT Oil Comment: GS Top Projects Takeaways: Strong Supply in 2025-2026, Tighter Later n We identify takeaways from our equity analysts' 2025 Top Projects review of the world's major upstream oil projects. This review supports our below-the-forwards Brent/WTI oil price forecasts of $60/56 for the remainder of 2025 and $56/52 in 2026, but has positive implications for prices in the long term. n 2025-2026: Strong Non-OPEC ex Sh ...

May 4, 2025 10:00 PM GMT The Oil Manual Weaker Balances Ahead after OPEC Hike OPEC's quota revision came in higher than we had expected, and is likely a precursor for further supply increases in months ahead. This adds to the market surplus we already modelled for 2H25 and 2026. As a result, we lower our Brent forecasts by $5- 10/bbl. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: So far, the Brent price is following a trajectory similar to other key downturns; the current period arguably has most parallels to the downturn in 19 ...