Core Viewpoint - Crude oil prices are expected to decline sharply despite ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, as traders are optimistic about a potential resolution to the war based on statements from President Trump [1]. Price Movements - Brent crude is trading at $107.98 per barrel, down from $111 on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is at $94.12 per barrel, a decrease from over $98 [2]. - Both benchmarks remain significantly higher than at the beginning of the year, indicating a potential for continued price rallies even if hostilities cease soon [2]. Market Sentiment and Analysis - Oil prices are influenced more by the duration of the conflict rather than just headlines, with analysts warning that any damage to oil infrastructure or prolonged conflict could lead to a rapid increase in prices [3]. - ING commodity analysts have presented three scenarios for oil and gas markets, with the base case assuming no structural supply disruptions due to a quick end to hostilities. Failure of this scenario could lead to significant changes in the oil and gas markets and negatively impact the global economy [4]. Supply Disruptions - The ongoing conflict has reportedly removed between 11 million to 13 million barrels of oil supply daily from the market, with estimates rising to 14 million barrels if the war continues [5]. - Current disruptions are prompting austerity measures in some Asian countries, and Australia is facing fuel supply challenges due to a lack of strategic reserves [6].