Core Insights - Oil prices have slightly recovered after a significant drop, with WTI trading at $58.80 per barrel and Brent at $62.46 per barrel, driven by optimism over U.S. pressure on India to reduce Russian crude imports [1] - President Trump's announcement of Indian Prime Minister Modi's agreement to halt Russian crude purchases may alleviate oversupply concerns [2] - The market remains cautious due to ongoing demand and supply uncertainties, with the IEA warning of a potential larger global oil glut by 2026 if OPEC+ production continues to rise [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - A notable increase in U.S. crude inventories indicates that domestic stock builds are impacting the market [4] - If India reduces its purchases of discounted Russian crude, it could decrease seaborne offerings, potentially stabilizing global oil balances [4] - However, if OPEC+ continues to increase output or if Chinese demand remains weak, this could counteract any upward price support [5] Market Sentiment - Bank of America has expressed a bearish outlook, suggesting that escalating U.S.-China tensions and sustained OPEC+ production could push Brent crude prices below $50 per barrel under certain scenarios, while maintaining a base case of around $61 for Q4 2025 and $64 for H1 2026 [5] - The broader bearish sentiment in oil markets may not shift significantly based solely on political statements [6]