Core Viewpoint - UBS indicates that new U.S. and EU sanctions on Russian energy firms may cause short-term volatility in crude prices, but a sustained price rally is unlikely due to global oil market oversupply [1] Group 1 - The sanctions are expected to introduce short-term volatility to crude prices [1] - UBS believes that the oversupply in the global oil market will prevent a sustained rally in crude prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing situation regarding India's purchase of Russian oil is creating tension in global trade, particularly with the United States expressing displeasure over India's decision to continue these imports for consumer benefit [1]. Group 1: India's Oil Imports - India is the second largest buyer of Russian crude oil, purchasing approximately 1.8 million barrels per day, which is significant for its refining business [3]. - The refineries in India are optimized for the type of crude oil that Russia produces, making it challenging for India to switch to other sources like those from the Arab Gulf [4]. Group 2: Market Volatility - The situation is introducing considerable volatility in the oil markets due to supply uncertainty stemming from Russia [2]. - Market participants are uncertain about whether India or the U.S. will make concessions regarding the oil trade, leading to fluctuating market sentiments [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - It is anticipated that India may reduce its imports of Russian oil slightly to ease tensions but is unlikely to cease purchases entirely, risking potential sanctions from the U.S. [5].