Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has increased tariffs on India to 50% and is pressuring India to stop importing Russian oil, which could lead to a spike in global crude prices [1][2][7]. Group 1: U.S. Tariffs and Pressure on India - The U.S. imposed an additional 25% tariff on India, raising the total to 50%, accusing India of supporting Russia's war efforts through oil imports [2]. - Industry sources indicate that if India halts Russian oil imports, global crude prices could exceed $200 per barrel [7]. - India's petroleum minister stated that the price of oil could have reached $130 per barrel without Russian oil imports, highlighting the previous U.S. encouragement to buy Russian oil [10]. Group 2: India's Oil Imports and Market Dynamics - India is a significant buyer of Russian oil, importing approximately 1.7 million barrels per day out of Russia's total exports of 3.35 million barrels per day [3]. - The share of Russian crude in India's total imports was 38% in 2023 and 2024, and is projected to be 36% in 2025, indicating a strong reliance on Russian oil [6]. - Industry sources argue that India is stabilizing global oil prices by purchasing Russian crude, which is not under sanctions but is traded under a price cap [4][12]. Group 3: Global Oil Market Implications - The removal of Russian oil from the market could lead to a significant increase in global oil prices, with predictions of Brent prices rising to $80 or above in the near term [8]. - The U.S. price cap on Russian oil, set at $60 per barrel, aims to limit Moscow's revenue while maintaining a stable supply in the market [12][16]. - OPEC+ has the capacity to adjust output to stabilize prices, but a complete drop in Russian crude production could deplete that spare capacity [15][16].