Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Viewpoints - Concerns over supply shortages have led to a surge in oil prices, but the impact on Asia is expected to be manageable due to lower oil burdens and moderate inflation [1][9] - If oil prices remain above $85 per barrel and the dollar continues to strengthen, it may delay interest rate cuts in the region [1][9] - Countries like Thailand, South Korea, and India face greater growth downside risks due to larger oil and gas trade deficits [3][9] Summary by Sections Oil Price Impact - The report estimates that a $10 increase in oil prices could raise Asia's CPI and current account balance by 40 basis points [8][36] - Asia's oil burden is currently below its long-term average, with projections indicating it could drop to 2.8% of GDP if oil prices average $75 per barrel [14][15] Trade Balance - Asia is the most oil-import dependent region, with oil accounting for 25% of its energy needs, and 80% of oil demand met through imports [10][12] - As of April 2025, Asia's oil and gas trade balance was -2.4% of GDP, compared to -1.7% for the Euro Area and 0.04% for the US [10][13] Macroeconomic Stability - Current macroeconomic indicators in Asia show good stability regarding inflation and current account balances [22] - Inflation is projected to rise slightly with oil price increases, but most economies are within central banks' comfort zones [22][36] Central Bank Policies - The report discusses how rising oil prices may influence monetary policy across different countries, with varying degrees of sensitivity to inflation and growth risks [47][48] - Countries like Australia and India may maintain a dovish stance despite rising oil prices, while the Philippines faces the highest risk due to its significant oil price exposure [49][52]