December 15, 2025 02:04 PM GMT Energy Services & Equipment | North America 2026 Outlook: Navigating an Oil Surplus Into 2026, we see NAm nearing a bottom, growth in int'l onshore driven by OPEC activity & take a more muted view on offshore as efficiency gains moderate upside. Against a challenging oil backdrop, we generally prefer exposure to more defensive & unique revenue streams. HAL to Top Pick, NOV to EW. Key Takeaways With this report, Joe Laetsch assumes coverage of North America Energy Services & Eq ...

Group 1 - The projected surplus in the oil market has narrowed due to lower OPEC+ production [1] - A significant supply overhang continues to impact the market outlook [1]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing a surplus, leading to lower prices, which benefits consumers but poses challenges for investors [1][4][9]. Group 1: Oil Prices and Market Dynamics - Oil prices have been weak this year, with some areas in the U.S. seeing prices near $2 per gallon [1]. - The XOP oil and gas ETF has declined by 8% over the year, underperforming the S&P 500 by approximately 20% [2]. - OPEC has been increasing production, but there is potential for a shift in strategy, including possible production cuts [2][6]. Group 2: OPEC's Role and Future Projections - OPEC is currently adding around 140,000 barrels per day, but there is speculation about a potential cut of 2 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year [7][8]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates a surplus of 4 million barrels per day in the first half of next year, while other estimates suggest a smaller surplus [8]. - Long-term projections indicate a potential shortage of oil due to underinvestment, despite short-term price fluctuations [9]. Group 3: Global Demand and Supply Factors - China has been a significant buyer of surplus oil, which has helped support prices despite loose market fundamentals [4]. - The recent U.S.-India trade deal may impact Russian oil imports, but overall market conditions remain loose [5][10]. - Future price movements are expected to be lower before potentially increasing again, influenced by various global factors [10].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1] Group 1 - The content includes general news and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1] - It highlights that the information provided does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1] - The article warns that the information may not be accurate or provided in real-time, and prices may be sourced from market makers rather than exchanges [1] Group 2 - The website discusses complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1] - It encourages users to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before investing in any financial instruments [1] - The article states that FX Empire does not endorse any third-party services and is not liable for any losses incurred from using the information provided [1]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is expected to experience a larger surplus than previously anticipated due to oil supply growth forecasts for this year and next exceeding global demand [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Oil supply growth forecasts for this year and next are outpacing global demand, indicating a significant imbalance in the market [1]

Core Insights - Oil prices have declined to multi-month lows due to the easing of market risk premiums following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas [1][3] - Brent crude futures fell by $1.73, or 2.7%, to $63.49 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by $1.71, or 2.8%, to $59.80 per barrel [1] Market Reactions - The ceasefire agreement is expected to alleviate concerns regarding crude carriers' safety in the Suez Canal and Red Sea, as noted by a commodities analyst [2] - The market's focus is shifting back to potential oil surplus as OPEC unwinds production cuts, with a smaller-than-expected output increase in November easing oversupply concerns [5] Price Trends - Weekly price changes show Brent down 1.7% and WTI down 1.9% [4] - Prices had briefly increased by about 1% earlier in the week due to stalled progress on a Ukraine peace deal, indicating ongoing geopolitical influences on oil prices [4] Supply and Demand Concerns - Analysts express that expectations for a significant increase in crude supply have not led to lower prices, indicating a complex market dynamic [6] - Concerns about a prolonged U.S. government shutdown potentially dampening oil demand in the U.S., the world's largest crude consumer, are also highlighted [6]

Core Insights - Crude oil prices are experiencing a decline due to a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, with Brent crude at $64.90 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $61.28, indicating the disappearance of the Middle East war premium [1] - The focus has shifted back to an impending oil surplus as OPEC unwinds production cuts, although benchmarks may end the week with slight gains [2] - The ongoing Ukraine conflict continues to maintain a war premium, with Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister indicating that efforts for a similar deal with Ukraine are largely exhausted [3] Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - The ceasefire in the Middle East has led to a reduction in oil prices, with Brent crude at $64.90 and WTI at $61.28 [1] - Analysts note that the unwinding of OPEC production cuts is contributing to expectations of an oil surplus [2] - The Ukraine war is identified as a significant upside risk for oil prices, with potential sanctions and tariffs on Russia providing support for oil benchmarks [4] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The potential for disruptions in Russian energy infrastructure due to Ukrainian drone attacks poses a risk to crude oil exports [5] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a rise in fuel demand to 21.99 million barrels daily, the highest since late 2022, indicating robust demand in the U.S. [6]

On today’s Big Take podcast: Investors are worried about an oil surplus. So why is OPEC+ pumping more? @davidgura and @JoumannaTV discuss https://t.co/whnrLYJh6l https://t.co/OshZGlaS4o ...

Market Concerns - Investors are worried about an oil surplus [1] OPEC+ Strategy - OPEC+ is pumping more oil despite investor concerns about a surplus [1]