Market Overview - Bitcoin has dropped below $100,000 for the second time in a week, losing 12% in a month, contributing to an overall crypto market loss of over $700 billion in the past month [1] - The Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 'extreme fear' at a level of 10, indicating sentiment comparable to confirmed bear-market phases in early 2022 and June 2022 [2] Sentiment Analysis - The trend indicates accelerating fear rather than stabilizing sentiment, which is typical at the beginning of bear runs [3] - Sentiment alone does not confirm a bear market but signals capitulation or exhaustion [3] Technical Indicators - Bitcoin has broken its most important bull-market support, with historical data showing that failing to reclaim this level quickly often confirms a cycle regime shift [4][6] - The 365-day moving average is currently near $102,000, with Bitcoin trading below this level, mirroring the breakdown seen in December 2021 when the bear market began [8] On-Chain Analysis - The 6–12 month UTXO realized price is around $94,600, with Bitcoin currently trading slightly above this level, indicating early capitulation rather than a distribution top [7] - This situation is significant as falling below this cost basis was a final signal before the extended downtrend in 2021 [7] Market Structure - Holders who bought during the ETF rally represent "bull-cycle conviction buyers," and when their positions enter loss, the market structure weakens [9]