Core Insights - XRP price has declined nearly 13% in November, raising questions about the potential for a positive December despite historical trends suggesting strong performance [1][3] - December historically shows an average gain of about 69.6%, but the median return is -3.16%, indicating that the 2017 surge significantly skews the average [2] - Recent years have shown more modest gains, with 6.94% in 2024 and 1.62% in 2023, suggesting a more cautious outlook for December [2] ETF Momentum - Institutional demand through ETFs is expected to influence XRP's performance in December, with CEO Ray Youssef noting that substantial capital has been attracted due to ETF buzz [4] - XRP has experienced a multi-day ETF inflow streak totaling over $640 million, which could act as a tailwind for its price action [5] - The sustainability of ETF inflows will be crucial for XRP's performance, as any reversal in the broader market could negatively impact its price [5] On-Chain Analysis - On-chain signals indicate a lack of strong bullish support for XRP, with long-term holders reducing their balances [7] - The 1-2 year holding cohort decreased from 9.72% to 8.516%, and the 2-3 year cohort dropped from 14.80% to 14.251%, suggesting selling pressure from significant holders [7][8] - These changes, while seemingly small, are significant as they weaken any potential upside attempts due to the substantial share of circulating supply held by these groups [8]