Core Insights - The XRP price has experienced a significant decline of 60% from its peak of $3.65 in July 2025, briefly reaching $1.11 before stabilizing around $1.50, indicating a severe market reaction [2][9] - Despite the price drop, three on-chain signals suggest that selling pressure may be diminishing, pointing towards potential accumulation rather than capitulation [3] Group 1: Exchange Balances - XRP exchange balances have decreased sharply from 3.76 billion tokens in October 2025 to approximately 1.7 billion by February 2026, marking a reduction of about 55% over four months, indicating a significant outflow of coins from exchanges [5][7] - Historical patterns show that similar outflows have preceded major price reversals, with large holders (whales) accumulating over 3 billion XRP since October, suggesting a potential bottom formation [6][7] Group 2: ETF Inflows - Despite the price crash, XRP ETFs have seen steady inflows, accumulating more than $1.37 billion since their launch in November 2025, indicating continued investor interest [10] - XRP's funding rates on Binance have dropped to -0.028%, a 10-month low, reflecting extreme bearish sentiment; however, similar conditions in the past have led to significant price rallies [9]

Core Insights - Solana has experienced a significant intraday recovery, gaining 12% despite market uncertainty, as the broader crypto market added nearly $200 billion in value [1][10] - Long-term holder buying momentum is slowing, with the HODLer Net Position Change declining, indicating reduced accumulation from investors who typically support prices during downturns [2][3] - A sustained recovery for Solana depends on whether long-term holders resume accumulation; weak buying momentum may hinder durable upside [3] Market Dynamics - The Money Flow Index (MFI) is nearing the oversold threshold below 20.0, suggesting that selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion, which could lead to price stabilization or short-term rebounds [8] - Historically, Solana has entered oversold territory three times in the past two and a half years, each time coinciding with notable price stabilization or reversal [9] Price Analysis - Solana's price is currently trading near $88 after a 12% increase in the past 24 hours, following a drop to an intraday low of approximately $67 [10] - Support from the broader market could enable SOL to push above $90, with a recovery rally requiring the reclaiming of $100 as support to confirm improving momentum [11] - If long-term holder selling continues and $100 is not reclaimed, Solana may remain range-bound near $90, with potential downside toward $78 [12]

Core Insights - XRP price has declined nearly 13% in November, raising questions about the potential for a positive December despite historical trends suggesting strong performance [1][3] - December historically shows an average gain of about 69.6%, but the median return is -3.16%, indicating that the 2017 surge significantly skews the average [2] - Recent years have shown more modest gains, with 6.94% in 2024 and 1.62% in 2023, suggesting a more cautious outlook for December [2] ETF Momentum - Institutional demand through ETFs is expected to influence XRP's performance in December, with CEO Ray Youssef noting that substantial capital has been attracted due to ETF buzz [4] - XRP has experienced a multi-day ETF inflow streak totaling over $640 million, which could act as a tailwind for its price action [5] - The sustainability of ETF inflows will be crucial for XRP's performance, as any reversal in the broader market could negatively impact its price [5] On-Chain Analysis - On-chain signals indicate a lack of strong bullish support for XRP, with long-term holders reducing their balances [7] - The 1-2 year holding cohort decreased from 9.72% to 8.516%, and the 2-3 year cohort dropped from 14.80% to 14.251%, suggesting selling pressure from significant holders [7][8] - These changes, while seemingly small, are significant as they weaken any potential upside attempts due to the substantial share of circulating supply held by these groups [8]