Market Analysis - Bitcoin crashed from six figures to the low 80K range, ETF inflows have stalled, DATs are wobbling, and altcoins are experiencing significant losses [1] - The discussion explores whether the current market situation is a true Bitcoin bear market or a brutal reset before the next upward movement [1] - True Market Mean is explained around 82K as a support level [1] - The analysis covers the potential death of altcoin season, the Zcash marketing pump, and the future of privacy coins [1] On-Chain Analysis - The discussion dives into realized cap, ETF cost bases, and OG whale distribution [1] - Key on-chain signals are examined to determine if the market is in a bear phase [1] - OG whale selling is contrasted with ETF demand, indicating a major rotation in the market [1] Future Outlook - The potential for institutional and sovereign buyers to enter the market by 2026 is considered [1] - The macro outlook into 2026 includes discussions on liquidity cycles and elections [1] - The conversation addresses the quantum-computing threat to Bitcoin, assessing whether it is realistic or overblown [1]

Market Analysis - Technical Analysis (TA) and free education are emphasized, prioritizing price action over on-chain analysis [1] - On-chain analysis is considered wildly misleading due to its reliance on numerous assumptions [1] - Price action is considered the most important factor, with other information deemed "infotainment" [1] - The market outlook is bearish, with a potential Bitcoin recovery not expected for the next 3-6 months [1] - A real bull rally is anticipated to begin next year when liquidity returns [1] Liquidity - Macro liquidity is more important than the on-chain cycle [2] - Dollar liquidity is a key factor [2]

On-chain analyst ZachXBT tweeted that regulators are using weak “illicit funds” claims to target the crypto industry, and if action against WLFI succeeds, platforms like Hyperliquid could be next. Previously, U.S. Senators Warren and Reed claimed $10K of the World Liberty Financial token sale came from illicit sources—just 0.0018% of the $550M total.https://t.co/oTaPfZ8do0 ...

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS GUIDE: SPOT ETFSAn Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle that trades on a stock exchange. Crypto Spot ETFs represent ownership in either a basket, or more commonly a single crypto-asset such as Bitcoin or Ethereum.You can use Arkham to track Spot ETF movements, verify their holdings, and identify bullish or bearish bias in real-time. Check out our article on Spot ETFs at the link below: ...

Market Observation - A trader noticed many people discussing a new meme launchpad on Binance Alpha Wallet, where a 1 million bonding curve could only be filled through the wallet [1] - The trader anticipated the launch window to be between 6 AM and 6 PM UTC, based on the Binance team's location in UAE and the activity of BSC runners from Asian time zones [1] Trading Strategy - The trader prepared for the launch by pre-adjusting gas and slippage, anticipating an instant fill [1] - The trader relied on on-chain data and bottom fillers, avoiding a coin (T4) that filled at 70,000 instead of 1 million [1] - The trader identified a token on-chain with a 1 million bonding curve created from fourmeme router, starting with 0x4444, and then invested 5 + 5 BNB [1] Token Information - A test token with contract address 0x4444ce1d7f81a5756e1adf4df562b3163de2e0ae was mentioned, but it cannot be traded [2]

On-Chain Analysis - The document refers to a comprehensive guide to on-chain analysis [1] - The guide is available at the provided URL: https://t.co/09BCP1VSol [1]

Allegations of Misconduct - Hayden Davis, associated with the LIBRA token, is alleged to have sniped the YZY token at launch using multiple addresses [1] - The alleged sniping generated approximately $12 million in profits for Davis [1] On-Chain Analysis Findings - On-chain analysis indicates several addresses received funds from centralized exchanges before the YZY launch [1] - These addresses are linked to Davis through funding transactions, CCTP transfers, and shared deposit behavior [1]

On-Chain Treasury Tracking - Arkham tracks treasury companies by monitoring abnormal movements of large amounts of cryptocurrency on-chain [1] - It's unlikely an individual will purchase $500 million of cryptocurrency quickly, triggering scrutiny [1] - The platform identifies patterns to determine if a wallet belongs to an exchange or market maker [1]

On-Chain Investment - An individual holds $250 million in BTC and ETH on-chain [1] - The current Profit and Loss (PNL) is +$6.2 million USD [1] Potential Market Influence - Speculation arises whether this individual could be a significant market player [1]

Workshop Overview - On-chain analysis workshop will be held with the help of @arkham [1] - The workshop will cover step-by-step analysis of a portfolio and its potential cluster, reasoning for tracking portfolio traces, and a real investigation example [1] Workshop Schedule - The workshop will take place on July 2nd, 3rd, and 4th [1] - Each session will be 30 minutes long [1] Registration Information - Registration for the free on-chain workshop is available via a provided link [1]