Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) traded within a narrow range on Sunday, while several major altcoins experienced stronger gains, amidst a broader macro backdrop influenced by a historic rally in precious metals [1] - As of 10:35 a.m. UTC, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $3.06 trillion, reflecting a 0.8% increase over the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin rising 0.5% to $87,872 and Ether (ETH) also gaining 0.5% to $2,939 [2] Price Action - Bitcoin found support around $87,500 after an initial slide, rebounding towards the upper end of the range near $87,900, with selling pressure limiting upward movements and shallow pullbacks indicating consolidation in thin weekend liquidity [3] - Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin remains trapped between approximately $86,500 and $90,000, emphasizing the importance of testing the lower end of this range, as repeated retests could weaken support over time [4] Potential Price Movements - A move back towards $90,000 could be seen as constructive if it places Bitcoin above its 20-day moving average, potentially setting the stage for a stronger move towards $105,000 [5] - On-chain analysis from Glassnode indicated that the short-term holder cost basis is at $99,900, while the active investors' mean is at $87,700, suggesting that many recent participants are currently underwater, which could lead to selling pressure if prices rally towards breakeven [6][7] Trading Dynamics - The active investors mean being close to current spot levels indicates that Bitcoin is trading near a midpoint associated with recently moving coins on-chain, often resulting in sideways price action as small fluctuations can quickly shift this group between modest profit and loss [8]

Market Analysis - Bitcoin crashed from six figures to the low 80K range, ETF inflows have stalled, DATs are wobbling, and altcoins are experiencing significant losses [1] - The discussion explores whether the current market situation is a true Bitcoin bear market or a brutal reset before the next upward movement [1] - True Market Mean is explained around 82K as a support level [1] - The analysis covers the potential death of altcoin season, the Zcash marketing pump, and the future of privacy coins [1] On-Chain Analysis - The discussion dives into realized cap, ETF cost bases, and OG whale distribution [1] - Key on-chain signals are examined to determine if the market is in a bear phase [1] - OG whale selling is contrasted with ETF demand, indicating a major rotation in the market [1] Future Outlook - The potential for institutional and sovereign buyers to enter the market by 2026 is considered [1] - The macro outlook into 2026 includes discussions on liquidity cycles and elections [1] - The conversation addresses the quantum-computing threat to Bitcoin, assessing whether it is realistic or overblown [1]

Market Analysis - Technical Analysis (TA) and free education are emphasized, prioritizing price action over on-chain analysis [1] - On-chain analysis is considered wildly misleading due to its reliance on numerous assumptions [1] - Price action is considered the most important factor, with other information deemed "infotainment" [1] - The market outlook is bearish, with a potential Bitcoin recovery not expected for the next 3-6 months [1] - A real bull rally is anticipated to begin next year when liquidity returns [1] Liquidity - Macro liquidity is more important than the on-chain cycle [2] - Dollar liquidity is a key factor [2]

Regulatory Scrutiny - Regulators are allegedly using weak "illicit funds" claims to target the crypto industry [1] - US Senators claimed $10K of World Liberty Financial token sale came from illicit sources [1] - The $10K represents only 0.0018% of the $550 million total [1] Potential Industry Impact - If action against WLFI succeeds, platforms like Hyperliquid could be next [1]

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS GUIDE: SPOT ETFSAn Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle that trades on a stock exchange. Crypto Spot ETFs represent ownership in either a basket, or more commonly a single crypto-asset such as Bitcoin or Ethereum.You can use Arkham to track Spot ETF movements, verify their holdings, and identify bullish or bearish bias in real-time. Check out our article on Spot ETFs at the link below: ...

Market Observation - A trader noticed many people discussing a new meme launchpad on Binance Alpha Wallet, where a 1 million bonding curve could only be filled through the wallet [1] - The trader anticipated the launch window to be between 6 AM and 6 PM UTC, based on the Binance team's location in UAE and the activity of BSC runners from Asian time zones [1] Trading Strategy - The trader prepared for the launch by pre-adjusting gas and slippage, anticipating an instant fill [1] - The trader relied on on-chain data and bottom fillers, avoiding a coin (T4) that filled at 70,000 instead of 1 million [1] - The trader identified a token on-chain with a 1 million bonding curve created from fourmeme router, starting with 0x4444, and then invested 5 + 5 BNB [1] Token Information - A test token with contract address 0x4444ce1d7f81a5756e1adf4df562b3163de2e0ae was mentioned, but it cannot be traded [2]

On-Chain Analysis - The document refers to a comprehensive guide to on-chain analysis [1] - The guide is available at the provided URL: https://t.co/09BCP1VSol [1]

Allegations of Misconduct - Hayden Davis, associated with the LIBRA token, is alleged to have sniped the YZY token at launch using multiple addresses [1] - The alleged sniping generated approximately $12 million in profits for Davis [1] On-Chain Analysis Findings - On-chain analysis indicates several addresses received funds from centralized exchanges before the YZY launch [1] - These addresses are linked to Davis through funding transactions, CCTP transfers, and shared deposit behavior [1]

On-Chain Treasury Tracking - Arkham tracks treasury companies by monitoring abnormal movements of large amounts of cryptocurrency on-chain [1] - It's unlikely an individual will purchase $500 million of cryptocurrency quickly, triggering scrutiny [1] - The platform identifies patterns to determine if a wallet belongs to an exchange or market maker [1]

On-Chain Investment - An individual holds $250 million in BTC and ETH on-chain [1] - The current Profit and Loss (PNL) is +$6.2 million USD [1] Potential Market Influence - Speculation arises whether this individual could be a significant market player [1]