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中国互联网汽车_2025 年第二季度预览:基于收入加速增长和市场整合,看好途虎-China Internet Auto Classified 2Q25 Preview Prefer Tuhu on accelerated revenue growth and market consolidation
2025-07-23 02:42
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Internet** sector, specifically the **auto classified platforms** Tuhu Car and Autohome, highlighting their performance and market dynamics in the automotive aftermarket. Company Insights Tuhu Car (9690.HK) - **Market Position**: Tuhu Car is recognized as the largest independent automotive aftermarket provider in China, with a significant lead in the market as of 1H25 [4][50]. - **User Growth**: Tuhu Car's monthly active users (MAUs) grew by **19% year-over-year (yoy)** in 2Q25, reaching **15.4 million**, outperforming competitors like JD and Tmall [4][14]. - **Revenue Growth**: Expected revenue growth of **11% yoy** in 1H25, driven by increased order volume and positive same-store sales growth (SSSG) [4][24]. - **Profitability**: Projected **21% yoy net profit growth** in 2025, attributed to eased pricing pressure and operational efficiency gains from AI [4][24]. - **Offline Expansion**: Tuhu plans to expand its workshop count by **15% yoy**, reaching approximately **7,278 workshops** by June 2025 [4][16]. - **Target Price**: The target price for Tuhu Car is revised to **HK$21.9**, reflecting a **10% implied upside** [25][51]. Autohome (ATHM/2518.HK) - **Revenue Outlook**: Autohome is expected to see a **7% yoy decline** in revenue for 2Q25, with media and lead generation revenues shrinking by **26% and 10% yoy**, respectively [30][31]. - **Emerging Revenue Driver**: Autohome Space is identified as a new revenue driver, with projected revenue growth of **2.2x yoy** in 2025, contributing **11%** to total revenue [30][32]. - **Dividend Concerns**: The company has not announced an interim cash dividend for 2025, which may indicate a delay in dividend payouts due to pending regulatory approvals for a change in controlling shareholder [30][35]. - **Target Price**: The target price remains at **US$26/HK$51**, with a neutral rating reflecting a balanced risk-reward outlook [34][49]. Key Market Dynamics - **Industry Challenges**: Autohome faces headwinds from reduced OEM marketing budgets and competition from pan-internet platforms, impacting its media services revenue [30][31]. - **Market Consolidation**: The number of registered auto repair stores has significantly decreased, indicating ongoing consolidation in the industry [21]. - **Consumer Trends**: The automotive aftermarket is experiencing shifts in consumer demand, with a focus on digital solutions and operational efficiency [50]. Financial Metrics - **Tuhu Car Financials**: For 1H25, Tuhu Car is projected to achieve revenues of **Rmb7.9 billion** and an adjusted net profit of **Rmb341 million**, with a net profit margin of **4.3%** [24][27]. - **Autohome Financials**: Autohome's expected revenue for 2Q25 is **Rmb1.75 billion**, with a non-GAAP net profit of **Rmb465 million** and a net profit margin of **26.6%** [30][45]. Conclusion - Tuhu Car is positioned for strong growth and market consolidation, while Autohome faces challenges but has potential growth avenues through its new service offerings. Both companies reflect the evolving landscape of the automotive aftermarket in China, with varying prospects for investors.