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Sigma Lithium Stock Prices In Mining Volumes That Don't Exist Yet, Analyst Says
Benzinga· 2026-01-08 19:00
Core Viewpoint - Sigma Lithium Corporation's stock declined after Bank of America Securities expressed a bearish outlook, citing unresolved operational delays and liquidity issues that overshadow any potential rebound in lithium prices and hinder the company's near-term production capabilities [1][2]. Operational and Liquidity Challenges - The analyst highlighted that the company has not provided clarity on the restart of mining operations or the receipt of prepayment funds, both of which are essential for addressing balance sheet concerns [3]. - Despite a 158% increase in stock price since the November 14 earnings call, the analyst believes there is more downside risk, as the stock currently reflects expectations of large mining volumes despite minimal progress in resolving operational and liquidity challenges [3]. Production and Market Outlook - Delays in the first phase of production (P1) could impact the timing of the second phase (P2), further affecting the company's ability to capitalize on favorable market conditions through optimal production [4]. - Although the lithium market outlook has improved due to production discipline and strong demand, Sigma Lithium cannot benefit from higher prices without consistent production [4]. Financial Estimates and Revisions - The analyst revised the fiscal 2026 concentrate sales forecast to 210,000 tons SC5, down from 298,000 tons, but noted that lower first-quarter costs and higher prices in the second and fourth quarters, along with 190,000 tons of tailings sales, could help mitigate volume shortfalls, raising 2026 EBITDA to $97 million from $85 million [5]. - EPS estimates were adjusted to a loss of 15 cents for 2025 (previously a loss of 21 cents), 51 cents for 2026 (previously 46 cents), and 78 cents for 2027 (previously 73 cents) [5]. Stock Performance - Sigma Lithium shares were reported down 15.29% at $13.26 at the time of publication [6].