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SPY Calls Soar Over 24,000% After Trump Says Iran War 'Complete,' But Key Crash Signal Still Looms
Benzinga· 2026-03-10 06:30
Market Overview - The S&P 500 and the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) experienced significant intraday volatility due to President Trump's military victory claim, leading to a short-term rally despite the broader market hitting a technical level indicative of a potential bear market [1][4]. Options Market Activity - A dramatic shift occurred in the options market, where the $675 strike SPY call options dropped to $0.02 per contract by 2:10 p.m. ET, but surged to $4.95 by 3:30 p.m. ET, marking a 24,650% increase in approximately 80 minutes [2]. Investment Growth Potential - An investment of $1,000 at the afternoon low could have escalated to $247,500 by the market close, highlighting the extreme volatility and potential for significant returns during this period [3]. Technical Analysis - Despite the rally, the SPY closed below its 100-day and 20-week moving averages for the second consecutive session, a situation that has historically occurred only eight times in the last decade, often preceding deeper market declines [4][5]. Market Sentiment - Analysts remain cautious, noting that the breach of key technical levels could lead to a full-scale market correction, despite the temporary relief provided by Trump's comments [5]. ETF Performance - On the day of the volatility, the SPY closed up 0.88% at $678.27, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ) increased by 1.34% to $607.76, indicating a positive response in the ETF market despite underlying concerns [6].