Parabolic Moves
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Charting the meme mania: Single-stock performance obscures risk below the surface
Youtube· 2025-10-22 20:57
Market Trends - The recent launch of the meme ETF has coincided with a peak in the meme index, similar to its previous launch in November 2021 [2] - Parabolic moves in asset classes tend to revert, and there are signs of weakness in non-parabolic areas of the market [3][5] - The market has gone 121 straight trading days without testing the 50-day moving average, with historical data suggesting a likely test of this average soon [5][6] Defensive Sectors - There is a rotation into more defensive parts of the market, particularly in REITs and healthcare, which are showing breakout patterns [8] Earnings Outlook - A significant slate of earnings from major companies is expected next week, which could be a critical factor for the overall market [9] Gold Market Analysis - Gold was approximately 28-30% above the 200-day moving average at its peak, marking the widest spread in 20 years, and is currently experiencing a pullback [11] - A potential further decline for gold is anticipated to test the 50-day moving average, although the structural uptrend for metals remains intact [12][13] - Despite the recent pullback, gold is still up more than 9% over the past month [13]
Charting the meme mania: Single-stock performance obscures risk below the surface
CNBC Television· 2025-10-22 20:27
Market Trends & Observations - Meme stocks and quantum stocks' parabolic moves tend to revert in equal and opposite fashion [3] - Modest weakness is creeping through non-parabolic areas of the market [5] - Rotation into more defensive parts of the market, such as REITs and healthcare, is observed [8] Technical Analysis & Indicators - The market has gone 121 straight trading days (approximately 6 months) without testing the 50-day moving average [5] - Historically, longer streaks without testing the 50-day moving average ended around the 140-150 day mark [5] - Gold's peak on Monday was about 28-30% above the 200-day moving average, the widest spread in about 20 years [11] Future Outlook & Potential Risks - A test of the 50-day moving average is likely, which could feel painful given the steady uptrend since April [6] - Earnings from the largest companies are crucial for the overall market [9] - Gold may experience one more leg lower to test the 50-day moving average, but the structural uptrend for metals is still intact [12]