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How Realistic Are RCL's Perfecta Targets Given 2025 EPS Growth of 31%?
ZACKSยท 2025-08-22 17:11
Core Insights - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) is advancing its Perfecta financial plan, aiming for a 20% compound annual EPS growth rate through 2027 and high teens return on invested capital, positioning the company favorably in the $2 trillion global vacation market [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, RCL reported adjusted EPS of $4.38, a 36% year-over-year increase, exceeding guidance by $0.33 [2][7] - Net yield increased by 5.2%, and load factor reached 110%, with millennials and Gen Z making up half of the guest base [2][7] - Full-year EPS growth is forecasted at 31% year-over-year, with estimates ranging from $15.41 to $15.55 [2] Strategic Initiatives - RCL is launching new ships like Star of the Seas and Celebrity Xcel, enhancing pricing power and supporting a destination-led strategy with the Royal Beach Club Paradise Island [3] - The company is expanding into river cruising and utilizing AI for personalized customer experiences, with nearly 50% of onboard purchases booked through its mobile platform [3] Financial Health - Adjusted EBITDA margins reached 41% in Q2, up 300 basis points year-over-year, with operating cash flow at $1.7 billion [4] - Liquidity stood at $7.1 billion, with leverage expected to decrease to the mid-2x range by year-end [4] Market Performance - RCL shares have increased by 36.3% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 14.9% [5] - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E multiple of 18.72, slightly below the industry average of 18.98 [9] Analyst Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RCL's 2025 EPS has been revised upward from $15.42 to $15.60, indicating strong analyst confidence [10] - Projections suggest a 32.2% rise in 2025 earnings for RCL, compared to 40.9% for Carnival and 12.1% for Norwegian Cruise [11]