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全球汽车电动车追踪 2025 年 9 月-2026 财年展望:增长放缓,竞争加剧-Global Automobiles EV tracker Sep - 25_ FY26 outlook - weaker growth, stronger competition...
2025-11-24 01:46
Summary of Global Automobiles Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global BEV Sales Growth**: In September 2025, global Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) sales increased by +31% year-over-year (y/y), reaching approximately 1.5 million units, marking a historic monthly high. For 3Q25, sales totaled 3.9 million units, reflecting a +32.4% y/y growth [1][2] - **Regional Performance**: The US led global growth in 3Q25 with a +33% y/y increase, attributed to pre-buying before the expiration of EV credits on September 30, 2025. Europe followed with a +32% y/y growth despite a seasonal decline of -2% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) [1] - **Future Projections**: Global BEV sales are expected to grow by +27% y/y in 2025, but growth will slow to approximately +14% y/y in 4Q25, primarily due to a potential sales decline in the US of -10% y/y or more after subsidy cuts [1] OEM Performance - **Tesla**: Gained market share in September 2025 (+120 basis points), with expectations of continued strength due to new entry-level models. However, a reversal is anticipated post-EV pre-buying in the US [2] - **BYD and Geely**: Experienced significant market share losses (-60 basis points and -100 basis points respectively) due to increased local competition and slower growth in China [2] - **US OEMs**: Celebrated the end of EV credits, pushing forward in the market [2] - **German Premium OEMs**: Mixed results; only Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz gained market share, with Audi's global BEV sales up by +55% y/y in Q3 2025, while BMW saw a decline of -16% y/y [2] FY26 Outlook - **Sales Growth Expectations**: Global BEV sales growth is projected to decrease to approximately +17% y/y in FY26, down from +27% y/y in FY25, with total sales expected to reach around 16.9 million units [3] - **US Market Dynamics**: Anticipated zero growth in BEV sales in the US for FY26 due to the removal of purchase subsidies and changes in regulations [3] - **China's NEV Market**: Expected to see a reduction in purchase tax exemptions, leading to only a +1 million unit increase in BEV sales y/y, with intensified price pressure [3] - **European Market**: Projected to grow by +30% y/y, with BEV penetration reaching approximately 24%, supported by subsidy schemes in Italy and Germany [3] - **Chinese OEMs' International Expansion**: As domestic sales slow, Chinese OEMs like BYD plan to expand internationally, with new plants in Hungary and Türkiye set to open in 2026 [3] Additional Insights - **Model Launches**: Key model launches in FY26 include VW Polo/Cross, Hyundai Ioniq 3 & 9, Renault Twingo, BMW iX3/i3, and others [3] - **Market Share Trends**: Tesla's market share increased to 14.2% in September 2025, while BYD's decreased to 14.7%. Geely's market share fell to 7.1% [19] - **PHEV Sales Surge**: Anticipated surge in Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) sales in China due to new EV rules, with PHEVs accounting for 40% of all passenger electric vehicle sales in the first eight months of 2025, reflecting a +35% y/y increase [8][9] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the global automobile industry, particularly focusing on BEVs and the competitive landscape among OEMs.