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Ray Dalio's the Big Cycle Explained in 3 Minutes
Economic Cycles - Economic cycles typically last about six years from one recession to the next [2] - Central banks inject money and credit into weak economies, causing market increases and increased spending, eventually leading to inflation [2] - Inflation prompts tightening of monetary policy, causing economic recession [3] - Since 1945, there have been 12 and a half economic cycles [3] Debt and Income - Debts are rising relative to incomes in most countries [3] - High debt relative to income and expensive debt service crowd out other spending [4] - Investors may sell debt if it doesn't provide good returns, leading to a change in the big debt cycle [4] Big Cycle and Political Disruption - The big debt cycle typically corresponds with the big domestic political and social cycle [4] - Disruption to wealth and well-being leads to political disruption [4] - Increased fighting over wealth and power creates new conflicts and seismic shifts [5] - These periods of great change are periods of great risk for markets and society [5]