Company Developments - Anthropic has trained a new AI model named "Mythos," which is said to represent a significant advancement in capabilities, but the company is concerned about the cybersecurity risks associated with it [2] - Anthropic has experienced multiple data leaks, including sensitive information and the code for its agentic harness, raising concerns about the security of its AI models [3] - OpenAI has decided to shut down its video generation app Sora, which was unprofitable and resource-intensive, in order to focus on its core products, leading to a loss of a potential $1 billion investment from Disney [18] - Mistral AI has raised $830 million through debt financing to support the development of Nvidia-powered data centers in Europe, aiming to provide sovereign AI alternatives to U.S. tech giants [19] Industry Trends - California's governor has issued an executive order requiring AI companies to disclose safety, privacy, and bias-mitigation practices for state contracts, asserting independence from federal designations [20][21] - A study suggests that AI chatbots may help moderate political polarization by nudging users toward more centrist views, contrasting with social media's tendency to amplify extreme opinions [23][24][26] - An economist warns that countries lagging in AI adoption may face stagflation, as they could experience high interest rates without the corresponding economic growth that AI-advanced economies like the U.S. and China might enjoy [28]

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has called on President Trump to commit to ending the war in Iran. Albanese told the national broadcaster ABC that he wants greater certainty over Trump's objectives in Iran, along with a recognition of the economic damage it's causing to the global economy. Trump has criticised allies, including Australia, for failing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and maybe in particular that country with the longest bond and longest ally.Australia to Australia was not great ...

Here are several different graphs of US political polarization. Whether you look at Congressmen in votes or individuals on social media, it's rising.2015: Plos Onehttps://t.co/vD6515VkwF2016: Voxhttps://t.co/UCWxRhU9du2017: CJRhttps://t.co/dLup5J1UFF2017: Pewhttps://t.co/EgEP7CyNAM2020: Turchinhttps://t.co/8KrYDsD8RL ...

If Iran wins, it's the end of five eras.1991-2026: the unipolar era1974-2026: the petrodollar era1945-2026: the postwar era1776-2026: the union era1492-2026: the Western eraSpecifically, the end of the petrodollar (1974) would also be the end of the unipolar moment (1991) and the postwar order (1945). It would mark the moment when Eurasian powers were once again dominant over Western powers (1492). Finally, a rapid crash in the dollar's purchasing power coupled with military defeat could well break apart th ...

At first glance this looks like a simple story about the mutually loathing poles of radical left and right in Britain. In reality the dynamic is more complex, and a lot more dangerous https://t.co/qykrIqluOX ...

At first glance this looks like a simple story about the mutually loathing poles of radical left and right in Britain. In reality the dynamic is more complex, and a lot more dangerous https://t.co/zqDD5ob6ga ...

I think I understand it from @slatestarcodex’s point of view.(1) First, just like a Republican, he was being loyal to his tribe. Except that tribe was center-left Bay Area EAs, as opposed to center-right DC tech MAGAs. These tribes actually have many shared friends, but neither really represents “America” — which doesn’t exist anymore as a unified nation, except in the heads of Republicans, which is in part what all the anger is about.(2) Second, just like a Republican, Scott was angry at a betrayal. But no ...

The push to reshuffle the ranks at key institutions to protect them from the far right sets a risky precedent. https://t.co/IZMmUiTlE1 ...

Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) is down -0.04%, influenced by a smaller-than-expected decline in US jobless claims and a larger-than-expected drop in January existing home sales [1] - US weekly initial unemployment claims decreased by -5,000 to 227,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market than the expected 223,000 [2] - January existing home sales fell -8.4% month-over-month to a 16-month low of 3.91 million, below expectations of 4.5 million [3] Currency Movements - The Chinese yuan has strengthened, reaching a new 2.5-year high, which is putting additional pressure on the dollar [1] - The euro (EUR/USD) is up by +0.09% amid mild dollar weakness, although gains are limited by a decline in German bund yields [5] - The yen (USD/JPY) is down by -0.24%, with the yen reaching a 2-week high against the dollar, supported by lower T-note yields [6] Interest Rate Expectations - Swaps markets are pricing in a 6% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 17-18 [4] - The FOMC is expected to cut interest rates by approximately -50 basis points in 2026, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is anticipated to raise rates by +25 basis points in the same year [4] - There is a 3% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) at its next policy meeting on March 19 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has reached a 4.25-month low, primarily influenced by speculation regarding potential currency intervention with Japan and domestic political uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The dollar index (DXY00) has decreased by 0.79%, hitting a 4.25-month low [1]. - Speculation about US coordination with Japan for currency intervention has contributed to the dollar's decline, as it aligns with President Trump's view that a weaker dollar benefits US exports [2]. - The yen has appreciated to a 2.5-month high against the dollar, influenced by reports of US authorities checking dollar/yen prices, indicating possible intervention [2]. Group 2: Political and Economic Factors - Political risks are prompting foreign investors to withdraw capital from the US, exacerbating the dollar's weakness [3]. - President Trump's threat of 100% tariffs on US imports from Canada if Canada signs a trade agreement with China has added to the uncertainty surrounding the dollar [4]. - The potential for another partial US government shutdown is creating additional pressure on the dollar, with Senate Democrats threatening to block funding deals [5]. - Concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence, a growing US budget deficit, and increasing political polarization are also contributing to the dollar's decline [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - ADP reported that US private payrolls increased by an average of 7,750 per week in the four weeks ending January 3, marking the smallest job growth in six weeks [6]. - The Conference Board's US January consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell by 9.7 points to an 11.5-year low of 84.5, which is weaker than anticipated [6].