Trade Tensions & Market Impact - Market experienced a sell-off due to trade tension news, especially after frothy valuation levels [1] - Broad exemptions exist for Canada and Mexico, resulting in an effective tariff rate of approximately 3% for Canada [2] - Europe faces high tariff rates and an expensive currency, raising concerns about export competitiveness [3] - Broad tech exemptions in the US may delay or avoid tariff impacts on the tech sector [4] European Politics & Debt Sustainability - France faces a debt sustainability problem despite potential positive outcomes from new government efforts [5][6] - Market anticipates ECB intervention in the French bond market, regardless of fiscal deficits [6] - ECB's willingness to tolerate spread widening in French bonds remains untested, especially in scenarios like Macron's resignation [7] - Unexpected political moves in France and Japan introduce uncertainty [8] Japanese Politics & Inflation - Japan's political situation is complex, influenced by the LDP coalition's issues and US-China relations [9] - Inflation is a key concern for any incoming government in Japan [9] - A weak yen acts as a consumption tax, exacerbating inflation, incentivizing the government to stabilize the yen [10]

Market Trends - The dollar reached a two-month high [1] - Investors are positioning for further gains in the dollar [1] Risk Factors - Political risks abroad are a key focus for traders [1] Data Analysis - A lack of US data is noted [1]

Immigration Enforcement Trends - ICE's arrests have increased, while the share of "criminal aliens" among those arrested has decreased [1] Political Implications - The shift in ICE's arrest demographics poses political risks for Donald Trump [1]

Market Trends - Long-dated bonds experienced a decline in value across both the US and Europe [1] - Inflationary pressures are contributing to market instability [1] - Political risks are adding to the challenges faced by the markets [1]

Currency Performance - The Japanese yen has underperformed all its major peers in the past three months [1] - The Japanese yen may be at risk of further declines [1] Risk Assessment - Political risks are mounting, potentially impacting the Japanese yen [1]

Turkeykey's economy, once tipped to repeat the success of South Korea's transformation, is in a rut. The reason is the tough measures needed to rescue the country from the balance of payments crisis it faced 2 years ago. But the arrest this March of Istanbul mayor and star opposition politician Ecram Imamolu made matters worse.It led to mass riots and caused the financial panic which forced the central bank to jack up interest rates again. Around a thousand domestic companies have filed for bankruptcy so fa ...

Market Trends & Risks - Lingering political risks are pushing French five-year bonds to the brink [1] - French five-year bonds are nearing the highest-yielding status in the euro region [1]

Political Risk - Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's suspension from office has eased near-term political risks for Thailand [1] Market Sentiment - Investors remain wary about the country's prospects and market outlook [1]