Core Insights - New home sales in January 2023 fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000, marking a 17.6% decline from December's rate of 712,000 and an 11.3% drop year-over-year, which was below the forecast of 722,000 [1] Sales Trends - Historical data shows that new home sales have been volatile since 1963, with a significant rise following the early-90s recession and peaking during the real estate bubble in 2005. Sales peaked again near the end of 2020 but have been stagnant over the past couple of years [3] - The percentage of new home sales relative to the U.S. population peaked at 0.47% in July 2005 and bottomed at 0.09% in February 2011, indicating a severe downturn during that period [6] Population Adjustment - Adjusting new home sales data for population growth reveals that current sales are 45.5% below the levels seen at the start of the data series in 1963, despite new single-family home sales being only 0.7% below that starting point [7] Mortgage Rates - The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in January 2026 was reported at 6.15%, reflecting the historical trends of mortgage rates since April 1971 [8] Median Home Prices - The median price for a new home was $400,500 in January 2023, representing a 4.5% decrease from the previous month and a 6.8% decline from the same time last year. After adjusting for inflation, the monthly change is -4.8% and the annual change is -9.0% [9]