Port tariff hikes
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中远海运港口(1199.HK)_初步解读_2025 年第二季度业绩超预期,受欧洲码头吞吐量和平均售价强劲推动;买入评级
2025-08-29 02:19
Summary of COSCO Shipping Ports Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: COSCO Shipping Ports Ltd. (1199.HK) - **Industry**: Port Operations and Logistics Key Financial Results - **1H25 Net Profit**: US$182 million, representing a **31% YoY** increase and **7% HoH** increase, exceeding expectations and accounting for **59%** of full-year estimates [1] - **2Q25 Net Profit**: US$98 million, up **28% YoY** and **17% QoQ**, compared to **1Q25** net profit of US$84 million [1] - **Interim Dividend**: Declared at HK15.1 cents, maintaining a **40% payout ratio**, implying a **5.5% annualized dividend yield** [1] Performance by Geography - **Overseas Terminals**: Profit increased to US$57 million, a **187% YoY** growth in 1H25, driven by Mediterranean terminals, particularly Piraeus, which benefited from higher storage income and throughput recovery [2][5] - **China Terminals**: Results remained stable with a **1% YoY** increase [2] Throughput and ASP Insights - **Total Throughput Volume**: Increased by **6% YoY** in 1H25, with domestic terminals in the Pearl River Delta leading at **7% YoY** growth [7] - **ASP (Average Selling Price)**: - Chinese subsidiaries saw a **2% YoY** decline in ASP due to reduced cargo volume amid US tariffs [7] - European subsidiaries maintained a **10% YoY** increase in ASP, attributed to higher tariffs negotiated with shipping lines and changes in box mix [7] Future Guidance - **2025 Throughput Guidance**: Based on Drewry's FY25 global throughput guidance of **+1.9% YoY**, with expectations of a **-0.8% YoY** decline in 3Q25 due to destocking, and further declines anticipated in 4Q25 [1][7] - **Capex Plans**: The company allocated **US$790 million** for FY25, with **US$614 million** earmarked for existing terminals [7] Risks and Investment Thesis - **Downside Risks**: Include worse-than-expected global trade and poor execution in overseas M&A [6] - **Investment Thesis**: The company is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HK$5.3, supported by expected growth from tariff hikes, volume growth, and overseas expansion [8] Additional Insights - **Cost Management**: EBIT margin remained stable at **17%**, despite volume growth, with a **14% decline** in net interest expense due to lower average borrowing costs [7] - **Market Position**: COSCO Shipping Ports operates **37 ports worldwide**, focusing on container leasing, terminal operations, logistics, and container manufacturing [7] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the financial performance, geographical insights, future guidance, and investment considerations for COSCO Shipping Ports Ltd.