Core Insights - The article discusses the probability of a 30% stock market drop over the coming year, with 2,792 readers submitting their estimates [1] Group 1: Author Background - Victor Haghani has 30 years of experience in markets and financial innovation, starting his career in 1984 at Salomon Brothers [1] - He was a founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) and founded Elm Wealth in 2011 to assist investors in managing their savings [1] - Haghani's research focuses on trade sizing, portfolio choice, and lifetime consumption, with a notable TEDx talk titled "Where are all the billionaires, and why should we care?" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article raises the question of whether a stock market crash is imminent, reflecting concerns among investors about market stability [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The article suggests exploring various approaches to assess the likelihood of a stock market crash, indicating a need for detailed analysis [1] Group 2: Expert Background - Victor Haghani, with 30 years of experience in markets and financial innovation, emphasizes the importance of disciplined investment management and long-term returns [2] - Haghani's career includes significant roles at Salomon Brothers and as a founding partner of LTCM, showcasing his extensive background in finance [2]