以下文章来源于TOP创新区研究院 ，作者人才研究组 TOP创新区研究院 . 创新区研究，就在TOP研究院。TOP研究院专注于全球创新区的一体化研究，从Talent(个人), Organization(组织), Place(区域)三大维度出发，通过"研究/连接/分享"，探索中国创新区的实践路径。 最近，我们看到Y Combinator (YC) 校友、现任Orange Collective合伙人Jason Freedman发了一 条有意思的推文。 1，Is it a good idea? （是个好主意吗？） 2，Is it a large market? （市场够大吗？） 3，Is it an experienced team? （团队有经验吗？） 4，Do they have traction? （有数据增长吗？） 作为曾经阅读过8000份YC申请的资深评审，Jason说到，在YC内部的复盘中，他们做了一个极为硬 核的"回测"： 将那些最成功公司的早期申请表翻出来，看看如果严格按照标准问题来打分，它们是否会被淘汰。 结果是惊人的。 这些千亿美金的巨头，大部分会在第一轮就被扔进碎纸机。 来源丨 TOP创新区研究 ...

Stablecoin Distribution - Only 3 chains host more than $10 billion in natively minted stablecoins, indicating a power law distribution [1]

💥⚖️ POWER LAW: Stablecoins live on many chains, but only 3 chains host more than $10 billion in natively minted stablecoins. https://t.co/a8aOWz22Q4 ...

⚖️ POWER LAW: @ethereum & @trondao host ~90% of the total stablecoin supply. @solana is the third chain that hosts over $10 billion in stablecoins. https://t.co/SIk862X3Ao ...

General Observation - The document visualizes the concept of power law [1]

Power law visualized: https://t.co/ECc8bP6Eld ...

Bitcoin Price Prediction - To reach $1 million, Bitcoin needs to double its price a little over three times [1][2] - The current doubling time for Bitcoin is approximately two years, but it is gradually increasing [1] - Based on the parallel core trend, Bitcoin could reach $1 million around 2033, potentially sooner with market bubbles [2] Volatility Analysis - The standard deviation of the core Bitcoin price trend is about 20% [3] - The standard deviation of Bitcoin bubbles has significantly decreased from over 100% to approximately 37% [3] - The volatility of Bitcoin bubbles is decreasing roughly as a reciprocal relationship to Bitcoin's age [4] Forecast Methodology - The forecast method considers both the parallel core mean and the bubble mean, along with the standard deviation size for the bubble [5] - The right tail of the bubble, specifically one and two standard deviations above the mean, indicates potential extreme prices [5][6] - There's an estimated 8% chance of Bitcoin price being one standard deviation above the bubble mean and only about a 1% chance of being two standard deviations above [6] Power Law Model - The ratio of price increase for the power core can be calculated by taking the inverse of Bitcoin's age, adding one, and raising that to the power law index of 58% [8] - At Bitcoin age 245 years, the parallel core median line is projected to be around $1 million [9][10]