Summary of CGN Power Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: CGN Power Co., Ltd (1816.HK) - **Industry**: China Utilities - **Market Cap**: Rmb152,398.1 million - **Current Share Price**: HK$3.17 - **Price Target**: HK$2.81 - **52-Week Range**: HK$3.30 - HK$2.31 Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Recurring Net Profit**: Down 8% YoY to Rmb2.57 billion, slightly below consensus expectations of Rmb2.6 billion [2][7] - **Total Gross Profit**: Decreased by 18% YoY in 3Q25, continuing the trend from 1H25 [2] - **Unit Gross Profit**: Rmb0.132/kWh in 3Q25, down 15% YoY [2] - **Revenue**: Rmb20.56 billion in 3Q25, a 7% QoQ increase but a 10% YoY decline [8] - **Net Profit**: Rmb2.624 billion in 3Q25, down 10% YoY [8] Tariff Policy Changes - **Guangdong 2026 Power Tariff Policy**: The variable cost compensation mechanism has been cancelled, which is expected to lead to a rebound in nuclear power market tariffs in Guangdong [3][7] - **Impact of Tariff Changes**: The cancellation of a ~4 cent discount is anticipated to positively affect CGN Power's tariff structure [3] Market Outlook - **Earnings Trend**: The company expects the trend of declining core earnings to continue into 4Q25, influenced by a relatively low base in 2H24 [7] - **Analyst Rating**: Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on CGN Power, with an attractive industry view [5] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: Include higher-than-expected utilization, upward adjustments of on-grid tariffs, and new project approvals [11] - **Downside Risks**: Include lower-than-expected utilization, downward adjustments of on-grid tariffs, and delays in new project commissioning [11] Valuation Methodology - **P/E Multiple**: A P/E multiple of 13x is applied to the 2025E EPS, with expectations of accelerating trends in new projects compared to previous years [9] Additional Insights - **Gross Margin**: Decreased to 29.8% in 3Q25, down 2.8 percentage points YoY [8] - **Effective Tax Rate**: Increased to 18.1% in 3Q25, up 0.5 percentage points YoY [8] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding CGN Power Co., Ltd, highlighting financial performance, tariff policy changes, market outlook, and associated risks.