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Should You Buy, Sell or Hold Pan American Silver Post Q3 Earnings?
ZACKSยท 2025-11-14 14:41
Core Insights - Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) reported solid third-quarter 2025 results with year-over-year increases in revenue and earnings, but missed Zacks Consensus Estimates on both metrics [1][4][5] - Year-to-date, PAAS shares have surged 95.5%, while the industry has increased by 121.4% [1] Financial Performance - PAAS reported revenues of $855 million, a 19% year-over-year growth, driven by higher gold and silver prices, but offset by an $80.5 million decrease in metal sold [4] - Silver production was flat at 5.5 million ounces, while gold production decreased to 183.5 thousand ounces from 225 thousand ounces year-over-year [5] - Mine operating earnings increased by 78.1% to $313 million, and adjusted earnings per share rose 50% to 48 cents, missing the consensus estimate of 49 cents [5] - The company achieved record cash flow from operations of $324 million and free cash flow of $252 million [6] Strategic Developments - The acquisition of MAG Silver Corp. in early September strengthened PAAS's position as a leading silver producer and enhanced its silver reserve base [8][9] - PAAS increased its silver production outlook for 2025 to 22-25 million ounces, up from 20-21 million ounces, while maintaining gold production guidance at 735-800 thousand ounces [11][12] Industry Context - In Q3 2025, gold prices averaged $3,500 per ounce (up 41% year-over-year) and silver prices averaged $39.80 per ounce (up 34% year-over-year), benefiting PAAS and its peers [15] - Competitors like Endeavour Silver and Hecla Mining reported mixed results, with Hecla outperforming estimates [13][14] Shareholder Returns - PAAS increased its quarterly dividend by 17% to 14 cents, raising the annualized dividend to $0.56 [16] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PAAS's earnings for 2025 and 2026 has increased by 10.8% and 37.6%, respectively [18] Valuation - PAAS is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple of 12.16X, below the industry average of 15.43X [26] - Compared to peers, PAAS's valuation appears attractive, with Endeavour Silver and Hecla Mining trading at higher multiples [28] Long-Term Outlook - PAAS is positioned for long-term growth with a diversified asset base and ongoing exploration efforts [21][23] - The company has solidified its mineral reserves, estimated at 452.3 million ounces of silver and 6.3 million ounces of gold [22]