Are prediction markets more accurate that expert forecasts? Creedit: Hanna Pad via Pexels. Key Takeaways Prediction market advocates argue that the wisdom of the crowd is better at predicting outcomes than a small group of experts. For instance, Kalshi claims its platform “beats Wall Street” consensus forecasts. Other research paints a more mixed picture of prediction market accuracy. To mark the launch of its new research division on Monday, Dec. 22, Kalshi released a study that found its platfor ...