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瑞银:中国工程机械行业_专家会议要点_淡季国内挖掘机需求承压
瑞银· 2025-06-30 01:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the construction machinery sector, projecting a full-year growth of 15% for domestic excavator sales in FY25, despite short-term fluctuations in demand [2][3][6]. Core Insights - Domestic excavator sales experienced a decline in May due to a significant drop in medium excavators, but the overall upward trend in the industry is expected to continue until 2027/28 [2][3]. - Small excavators showed the fastest growth in May, while large excavators lagged behind, primarily driven by urban underground utility tunnel construction [2][3]. - The expert anticipates that wheel-loader growth may surpass excavators in 2025E, influenced by the rise of electric wheel-loader penetration [2][3]. - The report highlights that the price competition for medium excavators has intensified, while competition for small and large excavators remains milder compared to previous cycles [4][6]. Summary by Sections Domestic Demand - Domestic excavator sales are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a rebound anticipated in June due to mid-year KPI pressures, although real demand may remain weak during the off-season [3][6]. - The expert forecasts a 5% year-on-year growth in H225E for domestic excavators, indicating a gradual recovery post-September [3][6]. Competitive Landscape - Price competition is more pronounced in the medium excavator segment due to lower brand concentration, while Tier-1 manufacturers focus on profitability [4][6]. - The report notes that as domestic brands enter the large and extra-large excavator segments, price cuts may become more significant in those areas [4][6]. External Demand - The impact of trade tensions on external demand is considered limited, with Chinese OEMs expected to continue gaining market share in overseas markets [6].